Tuesday, December 15, 2015

PAS AND UMNO COOPERATION

Before the 505 General Election, I predicted that UMNO would supports Hudud Bill in Kelantan State Assembly. In a state where non-Muslim constitute less than 5% of population, UMNO leadership hope that this will be fulfilling duty as a Muslim leader at the same time curry-favor PAS in Kelantan. This is obvious when we can observe PAS leadership in Kelantan especially Mentri Besar became UMNO friendly after this episode.

During 505 General Election, it is obvious that:
  1. Chinese rejected UMNO and BN
  2. A noticeable increase of Chinese support for PAS. To UMNO leadership it can be construed that the Chinese do not fear of the policies of PAS Islamisation.
Hence, they have been overtures by PAS to UMNO similarly by UMNO to PAS that they should work together for the unity of Ummah and the greater good of Muslim Ummah.

The majority of PAS Member of Parliament (MP) abstains when PR initiated the rejection of 2016 budget in Parliament. In the recently concluded UMNO General Assembly, Prime Minister Najib has openly invited PAS to work with UMNO.

The UMNO-PAS cooperation could:
  • Alter the electoral result for p and state seat in peninsular Malaysia
  • Represent a difficult challenge to the non-Muslim component parties of BN
  • Alter the economic and social landscape of Malaysia
  • A more pronounced Muslim dominance of the Malaysia political arena especially in Peninsular Malaysia. The non Muslim component parties of BN will be left in the fringes of the corridor of power, both at state and central government

Under the BN constitution, for PAS to join BN it needs the unanimous support of all the 13 component parties. Pas is unlikely to secure this unanimous decision. Hence, any cooperation within PAS and UMNO will be likely on a basis of UMNO through BN with both achieving consensus in sharing a State and Parliamentary constituencies and the sharing of the power after the General Election. This will be the Achilles heel in UMNO-PAS cooperation. If they can resolve the devil in the details of issues pertaining to seat and power sharing, this cooperation can assured them of success in predominantly Malay dominant constituencies.

We can predict that UMNO and PAS can form a State Government in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang. These five states contribute 54 Parliamentary Seats. In other state in peninsular Malaysia like Perak, Selangor, Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Malacca, non-Muslim parties need to win a few more seats in order for UMNO and PAS to form the Federal Government and State Government.

UMNO will not support the implementation of PAS Hudud in Parliament because it will shake the foundation of BN cooperation especially those from Sabah and Sarawak. Umno cannot ignore the wishes of Sabah and Sarawak BN component parties if they want to remain in Federal Government. However, one can predict that UMNO-PAS cooperation will usher in more Islamisation in Peninsular Malaysia. Presently, some UMNO leader has become more PAS than PAS for the matter pertaining to Islamic value.

Najib is unlikely to scarify his vision of high-income nation by 2020 for supporting the implementation of Pas Hudud. Najib wants to leave behind a political legacy of transforming Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020.

Politically, DAP has kicked off PAS from Pakatan Rakyat. This enabled DAP to challenge the non-Muslim component parties in BN that they should do the same when UMNO works with PAS. UMNO and PAS cooperation will have long standing implication to the non-Muslim political power sharing in this country. However, this is a separate topic to be pondered upon but I will not touch on this as yet.






Monday, December 14, 2015

巫统和伊斯兰党的合作

1.可以预测到的是,来届全国大选举行之前,巫统会支持伊斯兰党在吉兰丹州落实伊斯兰刑事法。非穆斯林只占吉兰丹州人口的5%,因此无论非穆斯林怎样反对都无法产生有作用。落实伊斯兰刑事法是穆斯林领袖的宗教责任,何况巫统支持伊斯兰刑事法,也是讨好伊斯兰党的政治手段。

2.505大选,华社明显地拒绝了国阵和巫统,许多华裔选民都公开支持伊斯兰党。巫统因此认为,华社和华裔并不会对伊斯兰刑事法感到担忧。而对华裔来说,他们则认为伊斯兰刑事法只关系到穆斯林,对非穆斯林是不会有任何的影响。

3. 505大选后,我们发现巫统和伊斯兰党一直在互相拉拢和互动频频。对这两个政党来说,他们这样做是为了穆斯林的大团结着想,而且这也将能更有效的发扬和捍卫伊斯兰的宗教发展。更加显著的是,在国会寻求通过2016年财政预算案时, 11名伊斯兰党国会议员在表决关键时刻缺席或弃权,最终让预算案在128票支持,74票反对的情况下获得通过。

4.首相在巫统代表大会上,公开地向伊斯兰党表明两党可以合作,问题是两党的合作将会带来怎样的政治影响呢?

首先,这种合作肯定将会改变来届大选,尤其是西马许多国州议席的成绩。在505大选中,巫统赢得88个国会议席和241个州议席,伊斯兰党则赢得21个国会议席和85个州议席。

在全国的222个国会议席和505个州议席之中,巫统和伊斯兰党的国会议席加起来就接近一半,州议席更是接近三分之二。

两个穆斯林政党的合作,这也肯定对整个社会和环境的色彩起变化,在每一个领域都将面对改变的冲击。

在这种情况下,对于国阵里的非穆斯林成员党来说,包括马华和民政党,他们肯定将面对严重的考验。

如果巫统和伊斯兰党合作成功,那也意味着,尤其是在西马各州和中央政府,将会由穆斯林领袖来主导政权。至于国阵的非穆斯林成员党,他们就只能在政治主流的边缘求存。

5.根据国阵的章程,任何的政党要加入国阵,必需获得所有13个成员党的一致同意,才能够成为新的成员党。因此,伊斯兰党要加入国阵,可以说是非常的难。

所以,巫统就只能通过该党本身和伊斯兰党合作,以讨论在大选中如何达致议席分配,以及在大选获胜后如何分享政权。当然,这对巫统和伊斯兰党,都是同样的艰难挑战。

6.无可否认的是,巫统和伊斯兰党的合作,将使他们在大选中更有胜算,特别是在马来选区,对两党都是有利的。
因此也可以预测到,巫统和伊斯兰党将可以很容易的在玻璃市、吉打、吉兰丹、登嘉楼及彭亨执政。

同时这5个州总共有54个国会议席,占了全国222个国会议席的四分之一,这对赢取中央政权是关系重大。

至于在霹雳、雪兰莪、柔佛、森美兰和马六甲,只要国阵的其他成员党,能够赢得几个议席,那么国阵在这些州的胜算是非常高。
而剩下的,就只有行动党可以在槟城继续的称王而已。

7.巫统是不会,也不敢和伊斯兰党联合在中央落实伊斯兰刑事法,这是因为巫统了解到,伊斯兰刑事法将会对全国的气氛和整个社会环境带来严重的后果。

再加上沙巴和砂拉越会强烈的反对伊斯兰刑事法,所以在中央政府实行伊斯兰刑事法是不可能会出现。巫统和国阵是不能忽略沙巴和砂拉越的反弹。

首相目前积极打造的经济转型计划,就是要把马来西亚发展成为一个高收入国家。他绝对不会牺牲他的这个目标,他也不会允许任何的政治举动来影响到这个目标。

首相要把高收入国的目标,成为他留给马来西亚人的政治遗产,让国人以后永远缅怀他对马来西亚做出的贡献。

8.过去几年以来,巫统党内的一些保守派领袖,他们不断的强调伊斯兰的宗教价值观。他们的言论有时候甚至比伊斯兰党的领袖更加的伊斯兰化,因此我们也可预见到整个社会的环境将更趋向的伊斯兰化。

9.我们可以达致一个结论,目前的政治局势是对行动党有利,特别是在行动党和伊斯兰党断交后,现在的政治情况是让行动党处于优势。

行动党现在有很好的机会和理由,来攻击马华和国阵的非穆斯林成员党。

行动党更可以挑战马华及国阵的其他成员党,敢敢的反对伊斯兰刑事法,甚至还可以挑战他们和巫统断交。

10. 马来西亚华人为什么会落到今天这样悲哀的处境,这是另一项必须探讨的问题。容我日后再谈。




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