Tuesday, December 15, 2015

PAS AND UMNO COOPERATION

Before the 505 General Election, I predicted that UMNO would supports Hudud Bill in Kelantan State Assembly. In a state where non-Muslim constitute less than 5% of population, UMNO leadership hope that this will be fulfilling duty as a Muslim leader at the same time curry-favor PAS in Kelantan. This is obvious when we can observe PAS leadership in Kelantan especially Mentri Besar became UMNO friendly after this episode.

During 505 General Election, it is obvious that:
  1. Chinese rejected UMNO and BN
  2. A noticeable increase of Chinese support for PAS. To UMNO leadership it can be construed that the Chinese do not fear of the policies of PAS Islamisation.
Hence, they have been overtures by PAS to UMNO similarly by UMNO to PAS that they should work together for the unity of Ummah and the greater good of Muslim Ummah.

The majority of PAS Member of Parliament (MP) abstains when PR initiated the rejection of 2016 budget in Parliament. In the recently concluded UMNO General Assembly, Prime Minister Najib has openly invited PAS to work with UMNO.

The UMNO-PAS cooperation could:
  • Alter the electoral result for p and state seat in peninsular Malaysia
  • Represent a difficult challenge to the non-Muslim component parties of BN
  • Alter the economic and social landscape of Malaysia
  • A more pronounced Muslim dominance of the Malaysia political arena especially in Peninsular Malaysia. The non Muslim component parties of BN will be left in the fringes of the corridor of power, both at state and central government

Under the BN constitution, for PAS to join BN it needs the unanimous support of all the 13 component parties. Pas is unlikely to secure this unanimous decision. Hence, any cooperation within PAS and UMNO will be likely on a basis of UMNO through BN with both achieving consensus in sharing a State and Parliamentary constituencies and the sharing of the power after the General Election. This will be the Achilles heel in UMNO-PAS cooperation. If they can resolve the devil in the details of issues pertaining to seat and power sharing, this cooperation can assured them of success in predominantly Malay dominant constituencies.

We can predict that UMNO and PAS can form a State Government in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang. These five states contribute 54 Parliamentary Seats. In other state in peninsular Malaysia like Perak, Selangor, Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Malacca, non-Muslim parties need to win a few more seats in order for UMNO and PAS to form the Federal Government and State Government.

UMNO will not support the implementation of PAS Hudud in Parliament because it will shake the foundation of BN cooperation especially those from Sabah and Sarawak. Umno cannot ignore the wishes of Sabah and Sarawak BN component parties if they want to remain in Federal Government. However, one can predict that UMNO-PAS cooperation will usher in more Islamisation in Peninsular Malaysia. Presently, some UMNO leader has become more PAS than PAS for the matter pertaining to Islamic value.

Najib is unlikely to scarify his vision of high-income nation by 2020 for supporting the implementation of Pas Hudud. Najib wants to leave behind a political legacy of transforming Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020.

Politically, DAP has kicked off PAS from Pakatan Rakyat. This enabled DAP to challenge the non-Muslim component parties in BN that they should do the same when UMNO works with PAS. UMNO and PAS cooperation will have long standing implication to the non-Muslim political power sharing in this country. However, this is a separate topic to be pondered upon but I will not touch on this as yet.






Monday, December 14, 2015

巫统和伊斯兰党的合作

1.可以预测到的是,来届全国大选举行之前,巫统会支持伊斯兰党在吉兰丹州落实伊斯兰刑事法。非穆斯林只占吉兰丹州人口的5%,因此无论非穆斯林怎样反对都无法产生有作用。落实伊斯兰刑事法是穆斯林领袖的宗教责任,何况巫统支持伊斯兰刑事法,也是讨好伊斯兰党的政治手段。

2.505大选,华社明显地拒绝了国阵和巫统,许多华裔选民都公开支持伊斯兰党。巫统因此认为,华社和华裔并不会对伊斯兰刑事法感到担忧。而对华裔来说,他们则认为伊斯兰刑事法只关系到穆斯林,对非穆斯林是不会有任何的影响。

3. 505大选后,我们发现巫统和伊斯兰党一直在互相拉拢和互动频频。对这两个政党来说,他们这样做是为了穆斯林的大团结着想,而且这也将能更有效的发扬和捍卫伊斯兰的宗教发展。更加显著的是,在国会寻求通过2016年财政预算案时, 11名伊斯兰党国会议员在表决关键时刻缺席或弃权,最终让预算案在128票支持,74票反对的情况下获得通过。

4.首相在巫统代表大会上,公开地向伊斯兰党表明两党可以合作,问题是两党的合作将会带来怎样的政治影响呢?

首先,这种合作肯定将会改变来届大选,尤其是西马许多国州议席的成绩。在505大选中,巫统赢得88个国会议席和241个州议席,伊斯兰党则赢得21个国会议席和85个州议席。

在全国的222个国会议席和505个州议席之中,巫统和伊斯兰党的国会议席加起来就接近一半,州议席更是接近三分之二。

两个穆斯林政党的合作,这也肯定对整个社会和环境的色彩起变化,在每一个领域都将面对改变的冲击。

在这种情况下,对于国阵里的非穆斯林成员党来说,包括马华和民政党,他们肯定将面对严重的考验。

如果巫统和伊斯兰党合作成功,那也意味着,尤其是在西马各州和中央政府,将会由穆斯林领袖来主导政权。至于国阵的非穆斯林成员党,他们就只能在政治主流的边缘求存。

5.根据国阵的章程,任何的政党要加入国阵,必需获得所有13个成员党的一致同意,才能够成为新的成员党。因此,伊斯兰党要加入国阵,可以说是非常的难。

所以,巫统就只能通过该党本身和伊斯兰党合作,以讨论在大选中如何达致议席分配,以及在大选获胜后如何分享政权。当然,这对巫统和伊斯兰党,都是同样的艰难挑战。

6.无可否认的是,巫统和伊斯兰党的合作,将使他们在大选中更有胜算,特别是在马来选区,对两党都是有利的。
因此也可以预测到,巫统和伊斯兰党将可以很容易的在玻璃市、吉打、吉兰丹、登嘉楼及彭亨执政。

同时这5个州总共有54个国会议席,占了全国222个国会议席的四分之一,这对赢取中央政权是关系重大。

至于在霹雳、雪兰莪、柔佛、森美兰和马六甲,只要国阵的其他成员党,能够赢得几个议席,那么国阵在这些州的胜算是非常高。
而剩下的,就只有行动党可以在槟城继续的称王而已。

7.巫统是不会,也不敢和伊斯兰党联合在中央落实伊斯兰刑事法,这是因为巫统了解到,伊斯兰刑事法将会对全国的气氛和整个社会环境带来严重的后果。

再加上沙巴和砂拉越会强烈的反对伊斯兰刑事法,所以在中央政府实行伊斯兰刑事法是不可能会出现。巫统和国阵是不能忽略沙巴和砂拉越的反弹。

首相目前积极打造的经济转型计划,就是要把马来西亚发展成为一个高收入国家。他绝对不会牺牲他的这个目标,他也不会允许任何的政治举动来影响到这个目标。

首相要把高收入国的目标,成为他留给马来西亚人的政治遗产,让国人以后永远缅怀他对马来西亚做出的贡献。

8.过去几年以来,巫统党内的一些保守派领袖,他们不断的强调伊斯兰的宗教价值观。他们的言论有时候甚至比伊斯兰党的领袖更加的伊斯兰化,因此我们也可预见到整个社会的环境将更趋向的伊斯兰化。

9.我们可以达致一个结论,目前的政治局势是对行动党有利,特别是在行动党和伊斯兰党断交后,现在的政治情况是让行动党处于优势。

行动党现在有很好的机会和理由,来攻击马华和国阵的非穆斯林成员党。

行动党更可以挑战马华及国阵的其他成员党,敢敢的反对伊斯兰刑事法,甚至还可以挑战他们和巫统断交。

10. 马来西亚华人为什么会落到今天这样悲哀的处境,这是另一项必须探讨的问题。容我日后再谈。




Sunday, April 26, 2015

Tolerance and acceptance of each other’s religion and belief

After nearly 60 years of independence, we expect Malaysians to be tolerant and accept the differences of race, religion and culture. Unfortunately, the incident of protest over a Christian cross in Taman Medan shows that religious bigotry and extremism is still thriving, even among the more educated and the so-called well-connected personality.

It is prevalent to hear people championing in the name of protecting their own religion but at the same time infringes the freedom and rights of others. What is worrying for all Malaysians is that such incidents are getting more frequent. It is common to blame our education system, our politicians and the government of the day for the ills that besets Malaysia. The reality of it is that we even find religious and racial extremists among the more educated Malaysians.

The racial and religious harmony that we enjoy now is fragile. All we need is a small spark before it flares out. However, a lot of Malaysians are behaving like the proverbial ostrich burying its head in the deep sand hoping that the wind will blow away our problem.

The silent majority must now wake up to face reality. They must let their voices be heard and their numbers to be counted. The silent majority rejects racial and religious extremism. Everyone regardless of race or religion should has a stake in this country.

If my religious conviction can be threatened by the sight or symbol of another religion, that something is very wrong with my religious conviction. It is obvious that my religious conviction is not grounded on knowledge and understanding but more on the emotion that is placed to the gallery.

The time has come that firm action should be taken against the protesters in Taman Medan. Failure to do so will empower the religion extremists to continue their religious crusade that will hijack the peace, harmony and prosperity that we enjoy.

We have to accept that Malaysia is a multi-religious, multiracial and multicultural country. We not only tolerate, but have to accept the unique differences that exists between fellow Malaysians. The sooner we come to term with these realities, then only peace, prosperity and high income economy will not be an elusive goal.
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包容及接受彼此之间的宗教和信仰 

独立近60年后,我们都期望马来西亚人都能互相容忍,接受我们之间不同的种族,宗教和文化。不幸的是,美丹花园发生的抗议教堂十字架风波,显示宗教偏执和极端主义仍然横行,甚至出现在受高深教育和所谓的有广泛联系的人身上。

我们往往看到,有些人以宗教之名疾呼捍卫他们的宗教,可是却同时在侵犯他人的自由和权利。让我们感到担忧的是,这种情况是越来越普遍。当然最容易的是把这发生的一切,怪罪在是我们的教育制度,我们的政治人物和我们的现任政府造成的。一个不容否认的事实,我们发现连受高深教育的大马人,竟然是宗教和种族极端分子。

我们现在享有的种族和宗教和谐,其实是非常的脆弱,只要是一点点星火,就足以燎原。悲哀的是,还有许多的大马人像把头插入泥土里的鸵鸟,祈望着一阵风就能把问题吹的无影无踪。

沉默的大多数马来西亚人,现在是时候挺身而出面对事实。他们必须发出让人听到的声音,而且也必须让人知道他们是不在少数。沉默的大多数是拒绝种族和宗教极端主义。每个大马人无论他们的种族和宗教背景,他们都是这个国家的一分子。

想想如果我的宗教信仰,竟然会因看到另一个宗教或其标志而受到威胁,那么我的宗教信仰似乎出了问题。因为这凸显我的信仰并不是根植在宗教知识和了解,相反的是基于情绪作祟。

如今已是时候不惜采取严厉的行动,来对付美丹花园的抗议者。否则的话,这将使宗教极端分子肆无忌惮的进行他们的宗教战争,结局是我们享有的和平、和谐及繁荣将付诸东流。

我们必须接受马来西亚是一个多元宗教、多元种族和多元文化的国家。我们不只是包容,我们更必须接受大马各族人民之间的差异和不同。只有在我们能更快的领悟这些事实,那么我们的和平、繁荣及高收入经济体的愿景才不会落空。

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Why do we need a Health Commission?

In my last blog posting, I commented on the surplus of house officers and many who opt to change their profession.

The Malaysian Health Services has achieved remarkable progress in reducing maternal and infant mortality rate. We have succedeed in providing basic healthcare which are easy accessible even in rural area. More commendable is that it is highly subsidized by the Government -nearly 98 percent of the healthcare in the public health services is subsidized.
However, looking at the rapid expansion both in manpower and services in the health sector plus the changing pattern of diseases, there is a need to relook at our health services.

Health has never been a major political issue in Malaysia as compared to the developed nation such as U.S. or the UK. However, today we see more problems cropping up and if they are not addressed, it will definitely be an issue in future. Hence, within the medical fraternity, many feel that there is a need to set up Malaysia Medical Commission to relook into the total health services in Malaysia for the next 20 years.

1. Medical education and over supply of doctors
The WHO has set a doctor: population ration 1:1600 for Malaysia. In 2010, we had a ration of 1:800, with 33,000 doctors. Looking at current production, we would achieve a doctor: population ration of 1:600 by 2015, with 50,000 doctors serving a population of just over 30 million.

The United Kingdom, with a population of 63 million, has 32 Medical Schools. Australis, with a population, of 23 million has 18 Medical Schools and Canada with a population of 34 million has 17 Medical Schools.

In 2009, the number of Medical Graduates/100,000 population in UK was 9.3 (5,600 graduates); Australia had a figure of 10.8 (2,500 graduates) and Canada 7 (2,400 graduates).

Malaysia with a population of 29 million has currently a whopping 33 Medical Schools (11 public and 22 private). In 2009, number of Medical Graduates per 100,000 population is 11.2 and in the year 2012, it was 14.6 (4,067 graduates).

So are we producing more doctors than the developed countries? Are we compromising quality in order to get the quantity we think we need? With this rate, we expect Malaysia (local and overseas) will be producing a total of 6,000 graduates per year.

2. Houseman-ship
Presently, we have more houseman than patient in a lot of hospitals. Houseman do not have adequate training. Some houseman see only 1-3 patients per day where they should clerk more than 10 patients per day in order to get adequate training. In the long run we will be producing half-baked doctors.

Presently, MOH has 132 hospitals and the total number of hospital beds in the public sector is 38,394. Currently we are short of 15,000 public hospital beds.
Hence, there is a need to relook into a more holistic solution of medical education, houseman-ship training and expansion of public hospital especially in semi urban areas.
If we delay we soon have unemployed doctors and inadequately trained medical officer.

3. Training for Specialist and Sub-Specialist
The training for specialist and sub-specialist should be planned at more coordinated manner to meet the need of the nation for the next 20 years.

For the last few years, we see a significant shift of disease patterns as Malaysia is developing towards a high-income nation. We are seeing more and more non-communicable diseases e.g. hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, cancer etc.

Hence, the distribution of public hospital bed, allocation of budget and man power need to be reviewed. Presently, we are training more than adequate doctors and medical officers but we are acutely short of specialist and sub-specialist. Semi urban and rural areas are inadequately serviced by specialist and sub-specialists. This may be a hot political issue that will find traction to the rakyat.

4. Ensuring quality of care and standards of medical services.
With the mushrooming of private hospital and its emphasis on bottom line, there is a need to ensure proper supervision of doctors and patient safety in private hospital.

5. Changing role of allied health professional especially nurses
There is a need to replace Diploma with Degree programs in Nursing following the world trend. Presently it is estimated there are more than 15,000 unemployed nurses.
Present group of nurses should be further trained for added value e.g. Advanced Diploma / post basic in specific areas such as diabetic foot, emergency care, coronary care etc. The training can be carried out in 6 months and can be conducted in private universities as public universities or MOH are unable to cope.
There is a need to introduce and support a proper career structure and pathway for allied health professionals.

6. Health Care Financing
Presently, this can be a very sensitive issue but we should not be in denial. Malaysia is one of the few countries in the world without some form of National Health Financing Mechanism. 98 percent of the cost of the treatment in public hospitals are subsidized by the Government and it is not sustainable. We should revisit this issue before it is too late.

7. Health Tourism
Health Tourism should be promoted and involved by not only the private hospitals but some selected public hospitals as well. We should consider:
·      Hospital involved should strive for international accreditation.
·      Revamp National Health Travel Council
·      Credentialing of specialists vital to avoid mishaps
·      Record keeping to keep track progress and performance

Right now we are getting increased number of patients but not the money since a lot of them come for low cost treatment e.g. cosmetic, dentistry.

8. Integrating Public Health Sector with the Private
·      Begin with Primary Care: Integrated out patient services
·      Decrease waiting time with integrated health care system

9. Pharmaceuticals
To promote local pharmaceutical manufacturer to produce generic drugs which is more affordable and good quality. This may includes:
·      Contract manufacturing: branded drugs manufactured in Malaysia and ensure good quality generic drugs and to be exported.
·      Create jobs, transfer of technology and research
·      Facilitate development of bio-similar drugs

Conclusion
It takes many years to train a competent health worker. If we are not committed to address these issues now, we may be overwhelmed by them.

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为什么我们需要卫生委员会

我在上一个帖文中谈到实习医生过剩的问题,已导致其中的一些选择改行。

马来西亚的卫生服务一直获得世界卫生组织的高度评价。我国的卫生服务不仅在减低产妇和婴儿死亡率方面取得显著成绩,也让所有国民,包括内陆地区人民都有效接受基本医疗服务的便利。更让人称许的是国内约98%的医药服务是获得政府高额津贴

不过,随着卫生领域在人力和服务方面的迅速发展,以及各种病变,我们有必要重新检视国内的卫生服务。

与美国及英国等先进国相比,卫生领域在马来西亚从来就不是一个重大的政治课题。然而,今天我们看到越来越多的卫生问题浮现,如果当局没有及时重视和着手处理,未来或将演变成大课题。

因此,在医药圈子里,许多人认为我们需要成立一个独立的马来西亚医药委员会,来全面探讨未来20年我国的卫生服务发展。


1.医学教育和医生过剩

世界卫生组织为大马设定的医生和人口比例是11600。在2010年时,我们出现的比率是11800,当时我国拥有33000名医生。看看目前我们培训的医生趋势,我国在2015年的医生和人口比例已达到1600。换言之,我国目前有5万名医生来服务3000万的人口。

英国的人口是6300万,拥有32所医学院;澳洲人口2300万,拥有18所医学院;加拿大人口3400万,只有17所医学院。

2009年,英国的医学生比例是没10万人有9.3名(5600名毕业生);澳洲是每10万人有10.8名(2500名毕业生);加拿大是每10万人有7名(2400名毕业生)。

马来西亚的人口是2900万人,但我们却拥有33所医学院(11所公立和22所私立)。2009年,,每在我国每10万人当中11.2名是医学毕业生,到了2012年,该人数比例增加至14.6名(4067名毕业生)。

所以,我们是比先进国栽培更多的医生吗?我们是否为了要达到我们认为所应需要的医生人数,而对医学系的素质妥协呢?以现在的培训比例而言,估计大马每年将栽培6000名医学毕业生(包括国内外大学)。


2.实习医生

目前在许多的医院里,实习医生的人数是比病人多。实习医生也未获得充分的训练。一些实习医生每天只问诊13名病人,而实际上他们每天必须问诊超过10名病人,这样才能得到足够的训练。这种情况长远下去, 我们将会栽培更多半生熟医生(未达标

目前隶属卫生部管辖的132所政府医院,拥有38394个病床,不过仍然短缺15000个病床。

所以,我们必须寻求全盘的解决方案,来检视医学教育问题、实习医生的培训计划,以及增建政府医院,特别是在半城市化地区。

如果拖延解决,很快的我们将面对医生失业和医务人员训练不足的问题。

3.培训专科和半专科医生
  
培训专科和半专科医生必须在周详和妥善的协调下进行,以应付未来20年的需求。

过去几年里,我国朝向高收入国目标迈进的同时,我们也发现大马人罹患的疾病也逐渐改变。我们看到非传染病显著的增加,如高血压、心脏病、糖尿病及癌症等等。

所以,政府医院的病床分配、拨款及人力需求等方面都必须重新检讨。目前我国是栽培过多的医生和医务人员,但却严缺专科和次专科医生。半城市地区和乡区缺乏专科和次专科医生驻诊,或将成为人民热切关注的政治课题。

4.保障医药服务的素质和水准

随着私人医院如雨后春笋般迅速增加,我们必须确保对私人医院的医生和病患的安全有适当的监管。

5. 医护辅助人员,特别是护士的任务变化

随着世界趋势的改变,护士课程应该从文凭资格提升至学位资格。 目前我国估计有超过15000名护士失业。

现有的护士应该给予更深层的训练以提升他们的专业和资历,例如在糖尿病足护理、紧急救护、冠心病医护等特别领域提供高级文凭课程。由于公立大学或卫生部无法应付需求,有关的训练可为期6个月,并在私立大学进行。

我们也必须为医护辅助人员的事业和前途,制定一套完整的职业架构。

6.医疗保健资援

在现今阶段这是相当敏感的课题,可以我们却不能否让这个事实。马来西亚是目前世界少数没有任何国民医疗资援制度的国家。政府医院98%的疗诊费用由政府津贴,这是难以维续的。我们眼下必须探讨这一课题,以免为时已晚。

7.旅游保健  
保健旅游计划必须加以推广,而且不应只限于私人医院,一些政府医院也应被遴选参与。我们应该考虑:
·      参与的医院必须致力争取国际认可。
·      重组全国旅游保健理事会。
·      鉴定专科医生的资历,以防发生医疗纠纷。
·      保存记录以便日后可做跟进和审视表现。

尽管我国从保健旅游计划中接待的病患人数增加,但从中赚取的收入却不多。这是因为到来求诊的多属于低治疗费病科 ,如整容和牙科护理等。

8.综合公共和私人的医疗服务

·      从基本保健着手——综合门诊服务
·      综合卫生保健系统以减少候诊时间

9.药剂服务

为鼓励本地制药厂生产优良品质及价格可负担的一般药物,可考虑采取以下的途径以达致目标:
·      合约生产:在马来西亚生产名牌药物和有品质的一般药物以供出口。
·      制造就业机会,同时达成科技与研究转移
·      促进研发治疗替代药物。

结语


我们需要花很多年的时间来训练一名能胜任工作的医务人员。如果我们现在不正视和解决这些问题,一旦恶化我们将无法招架。

Welcome to my Blog

As a concerned MCA member, I am trying my best to help in the process of rebuilding and repositioning of the party.

Therefore, I welcome party members and members of public to post your constructive suggestions and opinions on my blog on how to rebuild and reform the party, eventually enabling MCA to regain support from all party members and the community.


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