PAS AND UMNO COOPERATION

Before the 505 General Election, I predicted that UMNO would supports Hudud Bill in Kelantan State Assembly. In a state where non-Muslim constitute less than 5% of population, UMNO leadership hope that this will be fulfilling duty as a Muslim leader at the same time curry-favor PAS in Kelantan. This is obvious when we can observe PAS leadership in Kelantan especially Mentri Besar became UMNO friendly after this episode.

During 505 General Election, it is obvious that:

1. Chinese rejected UMNO and BN
2. A noticeable increase of Chinese support for PAS. To UMNO leadership it can be construed that the Chinese do not fear of the policies of PAS Islamisation.

Hence, they have been overtures by PAS to UMNO similarly by UMNO to PAS that they should work together for the unity of Ummah and the greater good of Muslim Ummah.

The majority of PAS Member of Parliament (MP) abstains when PR initiated the rejection of 2016 budget in Parliament. In the recently concluded UMNO General Assembly, Prime Minister Najib has openly invited PAS to work with UMNO.

The UMNO-PAS cooperation could:

• Alter the electoral result for p and state seat in peninsular Malaysia
• Represent a difficult challenge to the non-Muslim component parties of BN
• Alter the economic and social landscape of Malaysia
• A more pronounced Muslim dominance of the Malaysia political arena especially in Peninsular Malaysia. The non Muslim component parties of BN will be left in the fringes of the corridor of power, both at state and central government

Under the BN constitution, for PAS to join BN it needs the unanimous support of all the 13 component parties. Pas is unlikely to secure this unanimous decision. Hence, any cooperation within PAS and UMNO will be likely on a basis of UMNO through BN with both achieving consensus in sharing a State and Parliamentary constituencies and the sharing of the power after the General Election. This will be the Achilles heel in UMNO-PAS cooperation. If they can resolve the devil in the details of issues pertaining to seat and power sharing, this cooperation can assured them of success in predominantly Malay dominant constituencies.

We can predict that UMNO and PAS can form a State Government in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang. These five states contribute 54 Parliamentary Seats. In other state in peninsular Malaysia like Perak, Selangor, Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Malacca, non-Muslim parties need to win a few more seats in order for UMNO and PAS to form the Federal Government and State Government.

UMNO will not support the implementation of PAS Hudud in Parliament because it will shake the foundation of BN cooperation especially those from Sabah and Sarawak. Umno cannot ignore the wishes of Sabah and Sarawak BN component parties if they want to remain in Federal Government. However, one can predict that UMNO-PAS cooperation will usher in more Islamisation in Peninsular Malaysia. Presently, some UMNO leader has become more PAS than PAS for the matter pertaining to Islamic value.

Najib is unlikely to scarify his vision of high-income nation by 2020 for supporting the implementation of Pas Hudud. Najib wants to leave behind a political legacy of transforming Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020.

Politically, DAP has kicked off PAS from Pakatan Rakyat. This enabled DAP to challenge the non-Muslim component parties in BN that they should do the same when UMNO works with PAS. UMNO and PAS cooperation will have long standing implication to the non-Muslim political power sharing in this country. However, this is a separate topic to be pondered upon but I will not touch on this as yet.

PRESS STATEMENT BY TAN SRI DR. CHUA SOI LEK ON PAS HUDUD

I predicted before the 505 GE that UMNO State Assemblymen would support PAS in implementing Hudud in Kelantan. This has now become a political reality.  Religion is used as a political tool by all political divide to achieve their political agenda. MCA accused DAP of being impotent to persuade PAS not to implement Hudud. DAP’s agree to disagree with PAS is only a political rhetoric to con the voters.

When it comes to the implementation of Hudud by PAS in Kelantan, UMNO for political expediency and religious responsibility will support PAS. A lot of Chinese political commentators including Chinese press used to mock at me and stated that this is an empty threat and that it will not frighten the Chinese community. Hence, during the 505 GE, there was a significant rise of support for PAS by the Chinese community.  Soon, DAP will accuse MCA of equally impotent to restrain UMNO from rendering support to PAS in implementing Hudud in Kelantan.

The acid test will be when PAS tables the private bill for the implementation of Hudud in the Parliament. Will UMNO support PAS in Parliament? The proposed Private Bill by PAS in Parliament will never be passed through without UMNO MPs’ support. I am confident that Prime Minister who is the President of UMNO and Chairman of BN is fully aware of MCA’s stand with regards to PAS’ Hudud. When I was the President, Prime Minister himself had cautioned me to tone down my attack against PAS Hudud as it may be twisted that MCA is anti-Islam.

Hence, I predict that UMNO MPs will not support PAS’s Private Bill in the Parliament. Somebody in MCA will then go to town to claim credit. However, if UMNO MPs support PAS’ Private Bill in Parliament, MCA cannot continue to ignore the elephant in the room and blame others for supporting PAS Hudud in Kelantan. To continue issuing statement condemning DAP is an exercise of futility. The Malaysian community expects more from MCA and it is time for MCA leadership to rise to the occasion.

Azmin Ali: MB Selangor with no honeymoon period

Now that Azmin Ali is the MB of Selangor, he will be under the microscope from his enemies within the Party, DAP, PAS, BN and finally the rakyat. One should not forget that the Sultan of Selangor would be monitoring him closely as well. After all, he is appointed by the Sultan and his appointment is perceived by many to be extra constitutional.

It is only by performance as a MB that will vindicate him from these accusations. Azmin’s worst enemy will be his own party members. The unprecedented long period of party election has only served to aggravate infighting among the members of PKR. How Azmin reaches out to his enemy within the Party and whether or not he takes care of his own supporters will in a way influence his performance as a MB.

DAP and PAS are not going to give Azmin an easy ride, especially after he reduces the PAS EXCO from 4 to 3. If he gives in too much to DAP, Azmin will be perceived as pandering to the Chinese based party. How Azmin manages his relationship with the Palace will be crucial. The Palace’s support will be his trump card but if he over display the Palace card, it will work to his disadvantage in the long term.

Having work in the state as an EXCO in Johor, one cannot deny that the State Government’s relationship with the palace is crucial if you want to get things done. Although the Sultan is regarded as a Constitutional Head, but often his influence is palpable, especially in running the daily affairs of the state. Any MB who wish to ignore this would have to accept the consequences at his own peril.

Honeymoon is not with Azmin when he has to contend with a lot of state and federal issues that need to be resolved. Time may not be on his side. The six highway crisscrossing Selangor and the issue of the water consolidation within the state are elephant in his room. If he is not firm and at the same time not inclusive towards his own state assemblyman from PR, and the interest of Selangor rakyat, he will be seen to be a lackey of UMNO and BN.

For the water issue, time to resolve is of essence in view of water shortage in Selangor. So there is little room to maneuver, more so that his predecessor has signed a series of agreement with the federal government. For the toll highway crisscrossing the state, Azmin can play for time by holding public hearing in the name of being mesra rakyat. He can always insists on a detailed study of the socioeconomic impact of the highway in Selangor and play for time. After all, acquisition of land is a state matter.

The Bible issue will be a sensitive issue that Azmin needs to address. Since religion comes under the state with the Sultan as the head of Islamic religion, Azmin has to walk a tight rope to balance the state religious authority under the Sultan and taking care of the religious sensitivities of the minorities.

After PR has won big in the 505 election in Selangor, the rakyat has high hope that the PR will implement its state election manifesto. This includes no toll highway, affordable housing and water consolidation. While Khalid has undertaken steps or initiatives to consolidate the water issues, no toll highway and affordable housing seems to be a far-fetched dream to Selangor rakyat.

The plate is full for Azmin. As the richest state, Azmin must maintain the momentum of development to ensure rapid economic growth and adequate state revenue. Much has been written about Khalid’s RM3 billion in reserve. It is unwarranted praise because what Khalid did was to increase revenue collection from land conversion and development charges. This is not difficult because of the property boom. It would be a challenge now that it is anticipated that there is going to be a property slow down.

A perusal of the state budget shows that the development budget for this year is lesser than last year. However, management expenditure has gone up by 20%. Azmin needs to revisit the unwarranted 400% increased of salary of state representatives. It’s unthinkable for the State Speaker to be paid a salary of a Cabinet Minister.  In the state, the speaker of the Dewan is the most leisurely job as PR has more than 2/3 ADUN. How his colleague in Pakatan Rakyat will react when their salary are brought down to earth having enjoy sky-high salary for the last few month?

Khalid was criticized as aloof and do not reach out to his colleagues in the State Assembly. Hence, a lot of PR ADUN claimed they are unaware of the development within the state. Azmin needs to strike a balance of disclosing what the wakil rakyat need to know and at the same time ensuring confidentiality of the state information.

At the hike of the Selangor MB crisis, I predicted a month ago that Azmin will finally be the Menteri Besar. Now that he is the anointed successor, Azmin has to answer the call of duty by the Sultan, Rakyat of Selangor, Anwar, Wan Azizah, PKR and PR’s partner. He must prove that he is the boss in Selangor to Anwar and his cronies. With resources at his disposal, he needs to stamp his mark that he will ultimately succeed Anwar and not a puppet MB. His distractor will continue to poke holes in his administration.

PR’s Political Circus in Selangor

There is no clear light at the end of the dark political tunnel of intrigue by the PR Government.  Whatever the outcome of this infighting and political maneuvering may be, PR has definitely lost its moral high ground and the rakyat in Selangor will be the loser. One must not forget in the 308 general election, rakyat supported PR in the belief that they will bring in an era of new politics with fresh faces, more rakyat friendly, less political infighting, less corruption, more transparency and accountability.  On this basis, they were given a ringing endorsement in the 308 general election. Came the 505 general election, the rakyat reaffirmed these endorsements and they won big. While they do not form the central government, they still enjoyed more popular support than BN government.

One year is a long time in politics to see the true colours of politicians. PR has definitely lost the moral high ground when they first came in. We don’t smell fresh air but we smell the stinking political infighting within and between the three PR parties. They have pulled all strings at their disposal just to sack Khalid and install Wan Azizah as the Selangor MB. DAP used to laugh and mock MCA for leaders who are old as compared to DAP where they have young, intelligent, full of ideas and new faces. But when it comes to their own political expediency and survivor, they have thrown all the so-called virtues that they have advocated into the polluted Klang river to support Wan Azizah as the MB.

This is nothing personal against Dr. Wan Azizah. In fact, I admire her for her patience, humility and dedication towards Anwar. But running a fast developing state like Selangor where even a seasoned politican does not last, we are expecting too much from Wan Azizah to perform rather than just be a figurehead puppet. The man behind the throne is obviously the husband. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand this.

So far, only a small section of Selangor rakyat are disillusioned with PR. After all, they felt that the fight for power is common among politician. They have forgotten that when they voted for PR, they were voting for a better alternative than BN. But alas, they voted in a pack of politicians lusting for power and who are willing to sacrifice their principles of which they have shouted for so long. Hence, we cannot blame the rakyat for not trusting politicians. They realised that some politicians have bifurcation of the tongue with split personality. It’s a threatened species of politicians who are willing to go when the time comes without much funfair. Meanwhile, we continue to witness this political circus being enacted in front of us. Don’t be surprise the winner of the day may be Azmin Ali.

PR Selangor Crisis

It looks like it is not game over for Khalid and that he will cling to his post until this November. The crisis and the mess created in Selangor is a glaring example that PR is not an alternative to BN.

During the GE, PR leaders sing praises of Khalid as an excellent, clean and accountable leader. Then came the Kajang move where Anwar failed to realize his dream of becoming MB before ultimately hoping to become the PM. The dirt is now poured on MB Khalid and knives are out for his throat.  This is a contradiction to the praises they sing about him before the GE.

It goes to show that PR leaders are not as honourable and honest as what they claimed to be. In the long rule of BN in Malaysia, BN never had a crisis like what we saw now in Selangor. 

The crisis in Selangor clearly demonstrates that PKR is a one-family show. Anwar from being an unelected leader in the Party decided that he could have a puppet in the form of his wife as an MB. The wife is not a reluctant politician as she makes up to be. No wonder people do not trust politicians, whether from the government or the opposition.

PKR and DAP leaders talk about democracy, fairness, concerned for the welfare of the Rakyat. It is only fair that since Khalid is sacked from PKR, the EXCO members from PKR and DAP who have openly opposed him should resign as an honourable exit as EXCO. Clinging to the job will only negate all the claims about transparency, accountability and integrity. Don't treat Rakyat like fools. While the Sultan has given a lifeline to Khalid and he claimes that he has the majoriy support of the assembly, Khalid should now move to show he has the support of the state assembly. It will probably be a hung assembly unless some PKR or DAP Adun decides to crossover to BN. PAS with 15 members, UMNO with 12 plus Khalid being an independent, assuming that he does not join any of the 2 political party will be pitted against PKR, which has 13 and DAP with 15 seats. The role of the Sultan becomes more important in a hung dewan. In a scenario like this, the most honourable way to resolve this issue is to hold a snap state election to let the rakyat decide. Then only you can resolve the political crisis created by Anwar in Selangor. If the Selangor crisis is prolonged, there is no doubt that the Rakyat will suffer.

Thank God Anwar is not the PM.