领袖部长搞杯葛 我被打压

（昔加末28日讯）马华署理总会长拿督斯里蔡细历医生声称，他遭党内领袖，包括部长级领袖打压。

他向媒体指出，有人向政府部门的华人官员发出手机短讯，要求这些官员别与他合作，更勿向他透露政府部门内的资料。

他指出，短讯是要求有关官员，不要给予他协助和回应，否则将面对种种风险；有关短讯也传到许多马来官员手上。

蔡细历说，包括一名部长，也指示部门的马来官员，勿向他透露任何资料。

“该名马来官员感到莫名其妙，可是部长别忘记很多资料可从互联网索取的。”

蔡细历今午出席马华拉美士区会新春团拜时，如是指出。

他促请马华高层领袖别忘记，基层和选民才是党的最大老板，他们的所作所为，将受到人民的评估。

蔡细历也强调不会更改自己的作风及思想，高层领袖的手段只能影响基层，而不能真正改变基层的决定。

另一方面，对于日前的马华新春大团拜，自己被安排坐在元老桌，而非坐主桌，自己却无法对此作出任何投诉。

他说，虽然自己是票选的署理总会长，但在党内的地位，却是由高层领袖安排。

他坦言，自没有担任任何职位，这一年多来已经看透，已把地位看得不是那么重要。

“尽管被当成党得敌人，我还是会把党同志当成好朋友，还是有合作空间，除非别人不愿意合作，我也没有选择。”

载自《中国报》

蔡細歷：峇株紡織傢俱業 裁5千本地員工

Arriving at CNY Open House with wife. Pic from The Star online

（峇株巴轄27日訊）馬華署理總會長拿督斯裡蔡細歷指出，受到全球經濟風暴的影響，峇株巴轄紡織業及傢俱業的出口首當其衝，估計將有約5000名本地人被裁退。

他表示，部分工廠在這段期間，選擇給工人3個月的假期，有些則是給半個月的薪水。「一些在國外設有分行的工廠，則要求員工到外地工作，至於以出口至美國為主的傢俱業，有關生產線部分也已關閉。」

蔡細歷今日上午在馬華峇株巴轄區會新春開放日上，向記者這麼表示。

紡織業多依靠出口

蔡細歷也是該區會主席，他認為，在這場經濟風暴中，峇株的紡織業受到最嚴重的打擊，因為紡織業大部分依靠出口至美國、澳洲和歐洲等地，隨著這些地區的需求量降低，整個經濟局勢要在今年3月至5月期間才會更明朗化。

他強調，在這段期間，政府應該關注幾項問題，包括監督在我國人民被裁退之際，外勞理應是先裁退的對象。

他補充，在減少外勞之際，也必須確保不影響各行業的運作，尤其是服務業和建築業，仍然需要依靠外勞來進行。

「此外，裁員後失業者多，此時更應該關注社會問題，在犯罪案增加的情況下，人民也應該提高警惕。」

蔡細歷伉儷也在會上聯合區會署理主席高志財州議員伉儷、其子拉美士區國會議員蔡智勇伉儷，向在場來賓拜年。

今日出席這項開放日的嘉賓眾多，除了峇株巴轄區國會議員博安之外，2位馬華州行政議員陳國煌及何襄贊、州議員林其妹、李煌治，各區會領袖和社團代表也參與其盛。

文载自《东方日报》2009年1月28日

A New Year's Wish/ 恭贺大家新年快乐

Hereby wishing everyone a prosperity New Year and great health!
Meanwhile, my blog will be resting for 10 days.
Happy Chinese New Year!!

"喜气洋洋迎新春
一团和气庆丰年"
蔡细历携眷祝大家：新年快乐，富足安康，祝愿国家人民今年胜往年！ 歇息10天后，咱们继续网上论事。

It's All About Chinese New Year and the Economy

Festive season is on!

For the Chinese, it will be a time of giving angpow and receiving angpow, eating, drinking, gambling and late nights.

The economic downturn that seems to affect everyone has dampened the festive mood and of course the spending.

I notice that there is not enough media coverage on the impending slowdown that Malaysia, like many other countries faces.

I read in Singapore Straits Times recently and they devoted many, many pages to the slowdown. The Singapore government wants to prepare the rakyat to face the slowdown.

However, I notice that the Malaysia media do not give adequate coverage of the impending slowdown in Malaysia. Either it is a directive from political power, or lack of awareness by the media on inevitable slowdown that we are going to face.

While other nations have admitted that they are entering recession, Malaysia is still talking about growth of 2-3 percent.

I’ve also read small prints by economic analysis that the government growth will not be more than 1 percent.

Of course I must admit that economic prediction is like weather forecasting. In fact, the American bankers, financial analysts and so-called experts have been proven deadly wrong.

The government should do more to face this impending slowdown or it would turn into déjà-vu or a state of denial.

We are now told that government may introduce a 2^nd stimulus package. We have not even heard much about the 1^st stimulus package.

Economic stimulation will not work unless implemented properly so that the target group could directly benefit from it.

There is a lack of information in the 1^st stimulus package. The government dissemination group should be beefed up in time for crisis in order to keep the rakyat informed and connected of what the government is doing. This will generate goodwill of what the government care and do.

The government has to do more in the stimulus package to lighten the burden of the lower income group in view of inflation and the possibility of reduced income.

I cannot imagine why it takes so long for the government to review the electric tariff, which has a direct impact to all industries.

It has been shown in many countries that direct monetary grant to the lower income group to help them tie over the financial crisis is effective.

It is a question of having accurate data and distribution of the direct grant. Rakyat are normally not appreciative of indirect subsidy since everybody seems to benefit.

A new approach is needed to demonstrate that the government care and willing to share the burden of rakyat. The impact from economic slowdown often has the greatest effect on the lower income group.

It is estimated about 200, 000 people will be retrenched. I suspect more often than not, it is Malaysian workers who get retrenched more than foreign workers.

Enforcement is weak here. Why an employer should retrench a Malaysian worker who is paid RM1000 – RM1200 per month and a foreign worker whose salary is just RM600 – RM800 per month?

There is a need for monitoring mechanism to ensure that the process of retrenchment is not abused.

The government needs to drum home that employers must save cost to save job and not save cost by cutting jobs.

Road accidents and mortality has become part and parcel of any celebration. Our highway becomes a war zone, averaging about 20 deaths a day.

There was even some smart suggestion that express bus should not be allowed to operate after midnight since accidents occur more frequently at night. It is a typical Malaysia knee-jerk reaction by politicians.

Since most crimes are committed at night, then the government should implement curfew after midnight to reduce crime rates.

Politicians should learn to be more creative and innovative in responding to media query rather than shooting from the hip, which often becomes a dining joke.

Let’s not get depressed by such political statement. It will only serve to dampen our festive mood for celebration. Happy Chinese New Year!

喜庆佳日季节来了！

对华人而言，农历新年是赠收红包、吃喝、小赌一番、欢庆至通宵达旦的时节。

然而，经济萎缩看来已影响每一个人的过节心情，购年货的预算也随之缩小了！

谈到经济，马来西亚也正如许多国家一样，已受到经济放缓的冲击。但我发现本地媒体对有关现象的报道却少之又少。

最近翻阅新加坡海峡时报，我发现该报章拨用很多篇幅报道市道萧条的新闻，显示新加坡政府要人民做好心理准备，以应对不景气。

然而，我认为大马媒体没有充分报道国内已逼近的经济萧条实况。是因为受到政治力量指示？或因传媒的意识和醒觉不足。

正当其他国家已进入萧条状态，大马则反其道而行，一味强调2％至3%的经济增长率。同一时间，却又一些经济分析员在不同的媒体上指国家增长率不会超过1%。

我个人认为，经济预测与天气预告没有两样，两者皆变化无常；事实上，即使美国银行家、金融分析员以及所谓的专家的论点，都已证实谬误。

我认为，政府应该作好更多举措来面对经济不景的问题，否则将会陷入粉饰太平及拒绝面对现实的窘态。

最近，政府即将推出第2个经济振兴配套，可是我们却对第一个已宣布的经济振兴配套所知不多。经济振兴配套若不能彻底落实和推动，将无法达到经济苏甦的效果，涉及群体则不能够直接从中受惠。

第一个经济振兴配套的资讯非常匮乏，政府的传播团体应该第一时间确保人民随时掌握最新信息，了解政府的动向。这将使政府推行的关怀举措产生亲和力。

鉴于我们将面对通膨与收入减少的可能，政府有必要在经振兴济配套中做得更多，减轻低收入群体的经济负担。

我无法想像为何政府必须耗费那么长的时间来检讨电费收率，因为这对所有行业都构成直接冲击。

环顾四周，许多国家都向低收入国民提供资金援助让他们度过时艰。这项措施已证实取得良效，成功与否则胥视实行单位，能否确保 直接资援名单的真确性，以及援助金的发放制。

人民一般都不欢迎间接似的辅助金措施，因为此举将让所有人都受惠，包括不需要援助的人。

政府应该采取更能展现当局愿与民共负重担的措施，因为在经济不景时局，低收入群体将首当其冲。

一般臆测，约20万人将被裁退，我料想被裁的大马人会比外劳更多，这是因为我国的执法宽松无力。试问，雇主维和裁退了月薪介于1千到1千200令吉的本地员工，却雇用月薪600至800令吉、与本地员工薪金相近的外劳？

我觉得有必要设定一套监督机制，以避免裁员过程出现滥用现象。我也认为政府必须引导并确保雇主能采纳保留员工的节源措施，而非实行裁员来降低成本。

另一方面，公路意外和死亡似乎已成为任何佳节必然发生的事故，平均每天有20人命丧公路，我们的大道已俨如战场。

可是，竟然有人鉴于晚上的交通意外频繁，而提出“精辟”意见，欲严禁长途巴士午夜上路，这简直是政治人物的典型常态。若果如此，由于许多罪案都发生在夜晚，政府是否要为了减少罪案率，而在午夜宵禁呢？

政治人物在应对媒体询间时应该学习创新，否则将成为人们茶余饭后笑话。话说回来，我认为我们大可不必太过介意这些政治人物的说话，这只会破坏我们的庆祝佳节的气氛。

在此，我也要感激各位一路来到到访与支持，并籍此通知各位我的部落格会歇息10天。恭祝各位农历新年快乐！

国阵必须从瓜登补选中重新定位

在此先恭祝各位新年快乐！

冀望牛年为每一个人带来和平、健康和好运。

最近我因为罹患了感冒，并赴往槟城和瓜拉登嘉楼参加活动，以致无暇思考和下笔，对于上周没有为文张贴，深感抱歉。

现在，瓜登补选已成定局，我们必须接受人民的选择。任在何一个补选，只要候选人都有相等的报道价值，媒体都会将焦点放在有关的候选人与补选上。因此，这个选举媒体都很公平的报道。

依据传统，执政的政党一般都会在补选中占优势，可是这回的补选却例外。原因很简单，隨着5个州属落在民联手上，国阵已不能自称是庞大而强盛的政党组织。我们仔细观察民联，回教党也堪称强大的政党组织，不乏人材和财力。

民联拥有额外的优势，因为他们一方面掌有财源，一方面可以公开征捐，这种做法绝对能引起选民的同情与托付。

我可以肯定的说，目前国阵与民联都没有任何一个安全议席，这可能会激发政党间竞争，并会导致州议员与国会议员更勤勉地付诸政治运动。

因此，一些政治人物开始为了讨好而说一些人民要听的话，并做一些只让大众高兴的事，即使有关事件或政策可能有损国家的利益，譬如提供免费食水，虽然事实上食水供应是相当缺乏的重要资源。

我认为，国阵不能对任何选举掉以轻心。国阵不仅要改变处理国家事务的方式，也必须调整选举运动的谋略。我觉得，国阵向来的选举策略大同小异，没什么新鲜点子，而且一成不变地集中于地方发展以及大派糖果。

国阵领袖应该长年时时刻刻关并注解决地方发展及民生问题，而且要友善地与人民交流和互动。这比出席再多的千人宴更有帮助。
我最近受邀为一个配合农历新年而举办的文化晚宴主持开幕，虽然当地的马华领袖出自一片诚意，但可惜的并没有见到任何政治的效益。

由于当地国会议员兼副部长（来自巫统）必须履行祈祷义务，以致宴会延至晚上8时45分开始。6个宾客轮流上台致词后，节目在晚上9时45分才正式展开，许多不耐其烦的观众已中途离席，造成身为主办当局的马华深感失望。

我们应该体谅回教徒必须祈祷，但可以提早让贵宾上台致词或进行其他的节目，不让准时赴约的人民空等待。

其实道理很简单，马华领袖的讲词都是以华语演说，而友党巫统的领袖又无法了解演讲的内容，那要巫统代表到场才开始演讲并没有什么意义，倒不如让与会者开始观赏节目或开始进行演说节目。

让我们看回瓜登的补选，这次华人看来相当支持国阵，我们对此深表感激，但有几项因素必须特别注意：

甘榜支那微增62张支持票：
1）8千名华裔选民中有1千200人离乡背井，他们都没有回来投票，这些选民大部分是青年，并被理解是反对现有政权的选民。
2）当地州议员兼行政议员杜振耀勤政爱民，是个备受爱戴的地方领袖。

尽管如此，回教党还是俘擄了40%的华人选票，即使华人一般上都被视为反对回教党，因为从我的经验察觉，回教党候选人在华人占多数的选区一般上都无法获取超过20%的华人选票。

如果越来越多人接受回教党，马华和巫统都要感到忧虑，我们不能仅靠回教刑事法的实施和刑罚对人们不利的说词，影响华裔选民不要投选回教党。

我们、巫统和国阵要做得更多，让非回教徒了解回教党并不能取代巫统，以及必须明确地向非回教徒解释此在多元种族的我国实施回教刑事法蕴含的真正意义。

巫统领袖讲论回教或其他宗教信仰时，绝对不能比回教党更回教党化。

如果华人发现巫统领袖和回教党领袖并无两样，那么支持回教党的华人将越增越多。

如果一些回教党领袖能去华人庙宇，而巫统领袖却望之却步，那马华就要更费劲去收拾残局，更多的工作要作，即使这种举此只是一种象征似的形式，国阵还是会面对更不利的局面。

The Impact of Kuala Terengganu By-Election Result

Happy Chinese New Year!

May the year of Ox brings peace, health and prosperity to everyone.

I must apologize for not doing any posting in my blog last week.

I was down with flu and was travelling to Penang and Kuala Terengganu and have no time to think and write.

Now, the verdict is out for the Kuala Terengganu by-election.

We have to accept the rakyat’s choice. In any by-election, the medias attention and campaign tend to be very intense with the candidates assuming an equally high media profile.

Conventional wisdom is that during by-election, it is to the advantage of the party in power. This do not seems to be true in this by-election.

BN cannot claim to have a massive and a formidable party organization. With 5 states under PR government, we have observed PR, especially PAS have also a huge party organization and are not lacking in its manpower and financial resources.

PR party has an added advantage that they can openly solicit donation even though they may have the financial resources. It evokes a lot of sympathy and commitment from the voters.

No seat is now a safe seat for BN or PR. While it may provoke competition among the parties, it will definitely intensify politicking both at local and national level.

Soon, there will be politicians who speak what the rakyat likes to hear and do popular things that may not be of national interest in long term, e.g. giving free pipe water, when water should be a scarce and is a limited resource.

BN cannot take any election lightly. BN not only need to change its way of managing the affairs of the country, there is a need also to change its campaign tactic.

The campaign strategy of BN has not change much. It has fixation with local developments and giving goodies.

BN leaders have to be more focused in solving local development and bread and butter issues throughout the year. There have to be more activities that are people friendly and interactive.

Attending and officiating a lot of 1000 people dinners is not going to help very much.

Recently, I was invited to officiate a cultural night in conjunction with the Chinese New Year. While the local MCA leaders have good intention, it has no political impact on the audience.

We have to start late because the local MP who is a Deputy Minister (from UMNO) can only come after prayer; the program starts only by 8.15p.m.

With 6 speakers, the program proper starts only at 9.45p.m., by then a lot of the crowd have left the hall, disappointed with the organizer, MCA. While we understand the Muslims need to pray, the organizer could have started earlier with speeches.

While speeches are delivered in Mandarin and the Deputy Minister obviously have no idea about the content of their speeches. So, while waiting for the MP’s arrival, they can start the function, the impact will be better.

The Chinese in Kuala Terengganu seems to support BN. While we are thankful for their support, we take recognition of several other factors:

1) The increase of 62 votes in Kg. Cina is minimal;

2) A lot of Chinese outstation voters, about 1200 of them out of over 8000 voters do not return to vote. A lot of these voters are of the younger age group and they are perceived to be anti-establishment;

3) The local ADUN who is also the state EXCO YB Toh Chin Yaw (from MCA) is a hardworking and popular local leader.

4) To be fair, the BN state government has been fair in distributing “Wang Ikhsan” to the non-Malays in Terengganu. Temples, Chinese schools, associations and the poor received significant yearly grant from the state government. This has gone down well with the Chinese.

What should be noted is that PAS collected about 40% of the Chinese votes. The Chinese are often regarded as anti PAS and from my experience, PAS candidate in Chinese constituency do not collect more than 20% of the votes.

If more and more start to accept PAS, then MCA and BN need to worry. We cannot rely on Hudud implementation and its punitive action to the community to convince the Chinese not to vote for PAS.

We have to do more and UMNO and BN need to do more to convince the non-Muslim that PAS is not an alternative to UMNO.

Hudud implementation in a multiracial country and its implication need to be explained to non-Muslim.

UMNO leaders cannot be more PAS than PAS leaders when they talk about Islam and other religions.

If the Chinese find UMNO leaders and PAS leaders the same, then PAS’ support among the Chinese will grow.

If some PAS leaders can go to Chinese temple and UMNO leader refuse to go – although this is all symbolic, then MCA will have more work to do.

Kuala Terengganu By-Election: Controversy of Hudud Law and Its Implications/ 我对瓜登补选的看法

I went campaigning in the Kuala Terengganu by-election on the 8^th January accompanied by YB Chua Tee Yong, the MP for Labis, some MCA, Wanita and Youth members of the Kuala Terengganu division.

Arriving at 8.30a.m. in Kuala Terengganu airport by Firefly, we went for breakfast. After that, we started work.

We covered about 50 shop houses in the city centre. The response was good and I was pleasantly surprised that most of the voters know me by my full name.

A few requested to take photograph with me while some requested for my signature on the New Year greeting card. Of course I have to oblige to their requests. Facial and name recognition seems to help in the walk about.

After lunch, we met up with the Teochew Association of Kuala Terengganu. The Teochews numbered about 80 families in the Kuala Terengganu town.

Most of them are small time businessman. During the dialogue, nothing very much inspired.

However, during teatime interaction, a lot generally acknowledged that if they support PAS, it is because they are not happy with UMNO and not because they subscribe to PAS’ political agenda.

The fact that BN will not lose control at the federal level if it loses the by-election seems to be working to the advantage of the PAS.

I took the opportunity to talk about how voters should exercise their votes wisely and that it should not be swayed by emotion.

During voting, I said that voters should evaluate:

1) The candidate’s party;

2) The quality of the candidate

The party is important. This may explain why very few independent candidates are successful during election.

In this case, we have an UMNO and BN candidate pitted against PAS and PR party.

After the Teochew Association meeting, we went to a medium 4 storey flat. It was a good exercise covering blocks of 4 storeys flat.

Occupants of the 4 floors were surprised to see me when I knock at the door since they assume that they hardly have anyone knocking at the door when they are living on 4^th floor.

During 308 election, people voted for change. We now have 5 PR state government. People have the opportunity to evaluate the performance of the PR government.

The important question is whether PR state has done better than BN state government or not.

Have they implemented what is contained in their manifesto, such as local council election and election for village chief?

PAS talks about welfare state during the 308 election and today it is talking about Hudud law. Even Anwar also supports Hudud law by saying that it is only applicable to Muslims.

Is PAS on an expedition of fishing the Malay votes with Kuala Terengganu by-election in mind where Islam holds a central place in daily lives of average Malay in Terengganu?

Will the Chinese be frightened by Hudud law?

I think we have oversimplified Hudud implementation by talking only about the punitive action of Hudud law.

We tend to talk about restriction of the sale of alcohol and gambling outlet as if this is all about Hudud.

We have failed to talk about the bigger picture of Hudud and its effect in a multiracial country like Malaysia.

Today, there are over 50 countries in the world where Muslims is dominant with Islam as the official religion or they are Islamic statehood.

Strictly speaking, there are only 2 among 50 over countries that practice a more western form of Parliamentary democracy, which is Malaysia and Turkey.

The rest are often autocratic. They may have election about what is beyond our comprehension is that often some of these countries have Islamic Religion Council of which their position and power is way above the Parliament. The council members are appointed members.

It can be noted that most of these countries are not doing well economically despite they are having a lot of oil.

Generally, they are not investor and tourism friendly. Often, people will quote the example of Egypt and South Korea.

35 years ago, Egypt and South Korea have the same capital income. But today, Egypt’s per capital income is not even 20 percent that of South Korea.

Hudud implementation has wide ramification and implications in a multiracial country like Malaysia. It will be a messy job to implement Hudud only among Muslims and leaving the non-Muslims to the civil law.

Presently, we have enough confusion and controversy even with syariah and civil law. It will just add more confusion to what is already a difficult problem to resolve between syariah and civil law in some divorce cases where one of the spouse in converted to Islam.

本月8日，我由拉美士国会议员蔡智勇、以及一些来自瓜拉登嘉楼马华、妇女组和马青同志陪同下，在瓜登展开补选拉票运动。

当天清晨8时30分，我乘着飞萤航机抵至瓜登，用过早餐后就开始工作。

我们拜访市中心约50间店屋，选民反应出奇的好，令我受惊若宠的是大部分选民都认识我，还叫得出我的名字。

一些选民要求与我合照，一些则取出贺年卡要我签名，我当然不会令他们失望。熟悉的名字与脸孔对逐户拜访的确有帮助的。

午膳后，我们会见瓜登潮州会馆的会员。当地约有80个潮州家庭，他们大部分是小商贩。我们在对话交谈中并没有得到太大的启发，然而，在茶点时间的交流中，我发觉他们普遍上都承认，如果他们投选回教党，原因是不喜欢巫统，而非支持贺认同回教党的政治议程。

这里点出一个事实：如果国阵在这场补选失利，并不会影响该联盟持有的中央政权。这样的论点对回教党相当有利，他们也会利用次论调拜票。

我籍此机会向选民解说，他们应该精明地利用选票，万万不可受到情绪的影响左右。

我要求选民在投票时，必须慎重的评估：
1）候选人隶属的政党；
2）候选人的素质。

政党扮演非常重要的角色，这说明了为什么独立人士都不容易在选举中突围而出。因此在这起补选中，我们国阵与巫统候选人事实上是直接对垒回教党和民联候选人。

告別潮州会馆同乡后，我们到访4层楼的组屋，我也乘机好好地运动一番，我向4楼的住家叩门时，住户见到我时感到惊喜，可能是因为他们住在高高的4楼，平日罕有访客吧！

308全国大选时，人民期盼改变。目前有5个州属归民联管辖，人民因此有机会评估民联政府的表现。关鍵问题是，民联政府管理的州属是否比之前的国阵州政府还要好？

民联州政府是否已经履行宣言內容，诸如地方议席选举和村长选举？

回教党在308大选中大事宣传要建立“福利州”的意愿，但今天却不断提到实施断肢法。事实上，安华也是支持断肢法，而且已解释和强调这适用于所有的回教徒。

回教党是否在瓜登补选中企图擄获马来人的选票？他们认为，回教教义占据了瓜登一般马来人的生活。

华人会否畏惧断肢法？

我想，如果我们在讨论断肢法时只是触及它的的刑罚，可能把断肢法的定义简化了。我们只提及禁酒、禁赌，笼统的以为这就是断肢法的一切。其实我们并没有向华社全面性的解释断肢法以及其对马来西亚这个多元种族国家的影响。

今天，全球有50个国家由回教徒支配，这些国家是回教国或立回教为国教。

严格来说，50个国家中只有2国是采纳西方形式或民主议会制度，那就是马来西亚和土耳其。
其他国家则相当专制，他们可能有选举，但远超于我们所认识的。这些国家当中一些是拥有回教理事会，其委员也是被委任的，而他们的权势与位置一般上远远的超越了国会。

值得注意的一点是，这些国家虽然富产石油，经济却都搞得不太好；广泛来说，这些国家都不适宜投资和旅游。

很多人会以埃及和南韩为例来解释以上的论点。35年前，埃及和南韩同属收入均等国家；可是，今天的埃及的总收入却不及南韩的20%。

若要在类似马来西亚这样的多元种族国家实行断肢法，涉及的层面肯定非常广大，更会引起巨大分歧，如果只向回教徒实行断肢法，而非回教徒则奉行民事法侓，这是极其复杂与困难的工作。
目前我们已经对我国的回教法和民事法律有太多的混淆和争议，若再推行断肢法就会让原本已经存在的问题与情况更加的严重！这可从最近一些皈依回教的非马来人在办理离婚申请的案例中看到回教法和民事法侓之间的混淆与冲突，所造成的严重问题！

因此，对这些问题的了解与看法是非常的重要，也对这次的选举有极大的影响。

New Challenges Ahead in 2009! / 新年新挑战

May the New Year bring peace, good health and prosperity to all my readers.


Year 2009 will be a tough year for everyone. The financial turmoil and meltdown in America has become a global issue and Malaysia is not spared as well.

Politically, we are confronted with the Kuala Terengganu by-election. Although the outcome of the by-election will not change the power of BN at the Federal level; however, it is significant in many other aspects.

A few issues to ponder upon in this by-election:

1) The reputation of Deputy Prime Minister and the Prime Minister in waiting Dato’ Sri Najib Tun Razak is at stake as he is leading the campaign.

2) Will Malay voters support UMNO and BN in a state where political awareness is high and no seat is regarded as safe?

3) Will the Chinese, whose number 8787 (11.4%) support UMNO and BN candidates for in the 308 election? The BN candidate for Parliament constituency actually lost in the Chinese majority area.

This battle is very different from Permatang Pauh since there is no brand name candidates. They are all local boys.

All the big guns from the political divide will be on the battleground, more so to influence fence sitters.

For the Malay voters, majority has their inclination and political affiliations. Off course there are the minority who are the fence sitters.

However, the Chinese voters’ inclination is difficult to gauge. Nonetheless, the core group of MCA supporters is always there.

Since this is by-election, there will be a lot of door-to-door campaigning.

I always suspect its effectiveness if it is not done properly and often more to show that some leaders are ‘working hard’ for BN.

Often the VIP leaders are surrounded by a lot of followers and really there is little interaction between the candidates and the voters.

I often prefer the low-key approach where small group by BN workers, who are local leading the VIP leader and candidate going from house to house with interaction and problem recorded, with follow-up action to resolve and not a quick swing as if the voter will vote a particular candidate because he has the opportunity to shake the hand of the VIP and the candidate.

Gone are those days where voters are excited to see the VIPs. They have seen them too often in television and print media and there is no thrill to the voters anymore.

The soft touch is the preferred method of campaigning. Handouts will be undertaken by both the political divide. It may influence the small number of fence sitter. It is often a question of since it does no harm, why not do it?

For BN, public rally often do not attract the crowd. It can be disheartening, as most voters like to hear speakers critical of government. Government policies are boring topics.

On national issue, I suspect that it will not figure out prominently. Development issue, especially local issues will definitely be exploited to the full by PAS. Often there are weaknesses and poor delivery system of the local council. This will haunt the BN candidates. This time, it will not be an exception.

I understand that there are local issues that have not been resolved like flood, poor drainage system, shops use for bird nest cultivations and completed project without CF.

Rapid resolution of these problems will do the BN candidate a lot of good.

Of course I am involved in the by-election campaign.

Happy campaigning and good luck!

2009年将是艰难的一年。美国的经济和金融风暴已祸殃全球，让马来西亚也不能幸免。

在政治领域，我们正面对瓜拉丁加奴补选的挑战。虽然这场补选的成绩不会改变国阵成为联邦政府的地位，但对其他方面却影响深远。

有几项课题值得我们思考的：

1.副首相拿督斯里纳吉的声誉和形象。领军助选将考验这名候任首相的声望。

2.当地社会的政治意识强盛，也没有所谓的安全区，这场战国阵和巫统是否能取得马来选民的支持？

3.当地8千787名（11.4％）的华裔选民，会否像308大选时一样支持巫统和国阵的候选人？若分析该国会议席的得票，其实国阵的候选人，在华人占多数的地区无一胜选。

瓜丁补选和峇东埔一战全然不同。这场补选没有明星效应，被派上阵的都是道地的瓜丁人。而各政党的大头也纷纷前往助选，奋力影响和争取中立票。

大部分的马来选民其实都有自己的政治倾向，当然还有少数中立者仍在观望。华裔选民的意向则难以断测。然而，在瓜丁马华始终有一群核心支持者。

既然是补选，必将有很多沿户拜票访问的活动。沿户拜票的活动，若没又妥善筹备和进行，通常只变成一些领袖的卖命秀，并未达到真正目的。

一般上，在沿户访问时，贵宾或领袖们身旁都会围绕着许多支持者，这导致候选人和选民之间的交流受限。

因此，我个人较倾信与选民低姿态接触，由当地的国阵助选小组带领高层领袖和候选人，沿户到选民家中拜访直接交流和听取问题，让选民真切感受到候选人的诚意，而无需人多势众以致纷扰；访问时也不能敷衍待之，以为选民和大人物及候选人握手后，就会投你一票。

以前，对选民来说，得以会见大人物是一件兴奋难得的事。如今，他们可经常在媒体上接触这些人物，见面时已不再新鲜。

软接触往往是最好的拜票策略。递派传单虽然影响力不大，可能只成功影响少数选民和一些中立者。基于无害但用无妨的原理，传单依然是所有政党至今都必用的策略之一。

国阵举办的公开演说已不能吸引群众，这让人多么沮丧。如今，大多数人都喜欢听演说者批判政府，谈政府政策只会把他们给闷慌。我也相信回教党不会高谈阔论国家大事，反而会充分利用发展课题，特别是地方问题来攻击国阵。

据我了解，瓜丁有许多地方问题困扰选民多年迟迟未获解决，包括水灾、恶劣的排水系统、滥用店屋进行养燕、竣工屋业没有入伙纸等问题。

上述问题若能迅速解决，必能大力协助国阵候选人。

当然，我不会置身度外。我也会参与助选，奋力助选。祝国阵同僚好运。


踏入2009年，希望这只牛会为大家带来更和平、健康和繁荣的一年。