PAS AND UMNO COOPERATION

Before the 505 General Election, I predicted that UMNO would supports Hudud Bill in Kelantan State Assembly. In a state where non-Muslim constitute less than 5% of population, UMNO leadership hope that this will be fulfilling duty as a Muslim leader at the same time curry-favor PAS in Kelantan. This is obvious when we can observe PAS leadership in Kelantan especially Mentri Besar became UMNO friendly after this episode.

During 505 General Election, it is obvious that:

1. Chinese rejected UMNO and BN
2. A noticeable increase of Chinese support for PAS. To UMNO leadership it can be construed that the Chinese do not fear of the policies of PAS Islamisation.

Hence, they have been overtures by PAS to UMNO similarly by UMNO to PAS that they should work together for the unity of Ummah and the greater good of Muslim Ummah.

The majority of PAS Member of Parliament (MP) abstains when PR initiated the rejection of 2016 budget in Parliament. In the recently concluded UMNO General Assembly, Prime Minister Najib has openly invited PAS to work with UMNO.

The UMNO-PAS cooperation could:

• Alter the electoral result for p and state seat in peninsular Malaysia
• Represent a difficult challenge to the non-Muslim component parties of BN
• Alter the economic and social landscape of Malaysia
• A more pronounced Muslim dominance of the Malaysia political arena especially in Peninsular Malaysia. The non Muslim component parties of BN will be left in the fringes of the corridor of power, both at state and central government

Under the BN constitution, for PAS to join BN it needs the unanimous support of all the 13 component parties. Pas is unlikely to secure this unanimous decision. Hence, any cooperation within PAS and UMNO will be likely on a basis of UMNO through BN with both achieving consensus in sharing a State and Parliamentary constituencies and the sharing of the power after the General Election. This will be the Achilles heel in UMNO-PAS cooperation. If they can resolve the devil in the details of issues pertaining to seat and power sharing, this cooperation can assured them of success in predominantly Malay dominant constituencies.

We can predict that UMNO and PAS can form a State Government in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang. These five states contribute 54 Parliamentary Seats. In other state in peninsular Malaysia like Perak, Selangor, Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Malacca, non-Muslim parties need to win a few more seats in order for UMNO and PAS to form the Federal Government and State Government.

UMNO will not support the implementation of PAS Hudud in Parliament because it will shake the foundation of BN cooperation especially those from Sabah and Sarawak. Umno cannot ignore the wishes of Sabah and Sarawak BN component parties if they want to remain in Federal Government. However, one can predict that UMNO-PAS cooperation will usher in more Islamisation in Peninsular Malaysia. Presently, some UMNO leader has become more PAS than PAS for the matter pertaining to Islamic value.

Najib is unlikely to scarify his vision of high-income nation by 2020 for supporting the implementation of Pas Hudud. Najib wants to leave behind a political legacy of transforming Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020.

Politically, DAP has kicked off PAS from Pakatan Rakyat. This enabled DAP to challenge the non-Muslim component parties in BN that they should do the same when UMNO works with PAS. UMNO and PAS cooperation will have long standing implication to the non-Muslim political power sharing in this country. However, this is a separate topic to be pondered upon but I will not touch on this as yet.

巫统和伊斯兰党的合作

1.可以预测到的是，来届全国大选举行之前，巫统会支持伊斯兰党在吉兰丹州落实伊斯兰刑事法。非穆斯林只占吉兰丹州人口的5%，因此无论非穆斯林怎样反对都无法产生有作用。落实伊斯兰刑事法是穆斯林领袖的宗教责任，何况巫统支持伊斯兰刑事法，也是讨好伊斯兰党的政治手段。

2.在505大选，华社明显地拒绝了国阵和巫统，许多华裔选民都公开支持伊斯兰党。巫统因此认为，华社和华裔并不会对伊斯兰刑事法感到担忧。而对华裔来说，他们则认为伊斯兰刑事法只关系到穆斯林，对非穆斯林是不会有任何的影响。

3. 505大选后，我们发现巫统和伊斯兰党一直在互相拉拢和互动频频。对这两个政党来说，他们这样做是为了穆斯林的大团结着想，而且这也将能更有效的发扬和捍卫伊斯兰的宗教发展。更加显著的是，在国会寻求通过2016年财政预算案时， 11名伊斯兰党国会议员在表决关键时刻缺席或弃权，最终让预算案在128票支持，74票反对的情况下获得通过。

4.首相在巫统代表大会上，公开地向伊斯兰党表明两党可以合作，问题是两党的合作将会带来怎样的政治影响呢？

首先，这种合作肯定将会改变来届大选，尤其是西马许多国州议席的成绩。在505大选中，巫统赢得88个国会议席和241个州议席，伊斯兰党则赢得21个国会议席和85个州议席。

在全国的222个国会议席和505个州议席之中，巫统和伊斯兰党的国会议席加起来就接近一半，州议席更是接近三分之二。

两个穆斯林政党的合作，这也肯定对整个社会和环境的色彩起变化，在每一个领域都将面对改变的冲击。

在这种情况下，对于国阵里的非穆斯林成员党来说，包括马华和民政党，他们肯定将面对严重的考验。

如果巫统和伊斯兰党合作成功，那也意味着，尤其是在西马各州和中央政府，将会由穆斯林领袖来主导政权。至于国阵的非穆斯林成员党，他们就只能在政治主流的边缘求存。

5.根据国阵的章程，任何的政党要加入国阵，必需获得所有13个成员党的一致同意，才能够成为新的成员党。因此，伊斯兰党要加入国阵，可以说是非常的难。

所以，巫统就只能通过该党本身和伊斯兰党合作，以讨论在大选中如何达致议席分配，以及在大选获胜后如何分享政权。当然，这对巫统和伊斯兰党，都是同样的艰难挑战。

6.无可否认的是，巫统和伊斯兰党的合作，将使他们在大选中更有胜算，特别是在马来选区，对两党都是有利的。

因此也可以预测到，巫统和伊斯兰党将可以很容易的在玻璃市、吉打、吉兰丹、登嘉楼及彭亨执政。

同时这5个州总共有54个国会议席，占了全国222个国会议席的四分之一，这对赢取中央政权是关系重大。

至于在霹雳、雪兰莪、柔佛、森美兰和马六甲，只要国阵的其他成员党，能够赢得几个议席，那么国阵在这些州的胜算是非常高。

而剩下的，就只有行动党可以在槟城继续的称王而已。

7.巫统是不会，也不敢和伊斯兰党联合在中央落实伊斯兰刑事法，这是因为巫统了解到，伊斯兰刑事法将会对全国的气氛和整个社会环境带来严重的后果。

再加上沙巴和砂拉越会强烈的反对伊斯兰刑事法，所以在中央政府实行伊斯兰刑事法是不可能会出现。巫统和国阵是不能忽略沙巴和砂拉越的反弹。

首相目前积极打造的经济转型计划，就是要把马来西亚发展成为一个高收入国家。他绝对不会牺牲他的这个目标，他也不会允许任何的政治举动来影响到这个目标。

首相要把高收入国的目标，成为他留给马来西亚人的“政治遗产”，让国人以后永远缅怀他对马来西亚做出的贡献。

8.过去几年以来，巫统党内的一些保守派领袖，他们不断的强调伊斯兰的宗教价值观。他们的言论有时候甚至比伊斯兰党的领袖更加的伊斯兰化，因此我们也可预见到整个社会的环境将更趋向的伊斯兰化。

9.我们可以达致一个结论，目前的政治局势是对行动党有利，特别是在行动党和伊斯兰党断交后，现在的政治情况是让行动党处于优势。

行动党现在有很好的机会和理由，来攻击马华和国阵的非穆斯林成员党。

行动党更可以挑战马华及国阵的其他成员党，敢敢的反对伊斯兰刑事法，甚至还可以挑战他们和巫统断交。

10. 马来西亚华人为什么会落到今天这样悲哀的处境，这是另一项必须探讨的问题。容我日后再谈。

PRESS STATEMENT BY TAN SRI DR. CHUA SOI LEK ON PAS HUDUD

I predicted before the 505 GE that UMNO State Assemblymen would support PAS in implementing Hudud in Kelantan. This has now become a political reality.  Religion is used as a political tool by all political divide to achieve their political agenda. MCA accused DAP of being impotent to persuade PAS not to implement Hudud. DAP’s agree to disagree with PAS is only a political rhetoric to con the voters.

When it comes to the implementation of Hudud by PAS in Kelantan, UMNO for political expediency and religious responsibility will support PAS. A lot of Chinese political commentators including Chinese press used to mock at me and stated that this is an empty threat and that it will not frighten the Chinese community. Hence, during the 505 GE, there was a significant rise of support for PAS by the Chinese community.  Soon, DAP will accuse MCA of equally impotent to restrain UMNO from rendering support to PAS in implementing Hudud in Kelantan.

The acid test will be when PAS tables the private bill for the implementation of Hudud in the Parliament. Will UMNO support PAS in Parliament? The proposed Private Bill by PAS in Parliament will never be passed through without UMNO MPs’ support. I am confident that Prime Minister who is the President of UMNO and Chairman of BN is fully aware of MCA’s stand with regards to PAS’ Hudud. When I was the President, Prime Minister himself had cautioned me to tone down my attack against PAS Hudud as it may be twisted that MCA is anti-Islam.

Hence, I predict that UMNO MPs will not support PAS’s Private Bill in the Parliament. Somebody in MCA will then go to town to claim credit. However, if UMNO MPs support PAS’ Private Bill in Parliament, MCA cannot continue to ignore the elephant in the room and blame others for supporting PAS Hudud in Kelantan. To continue issuing statement condemning DAP is an exercise of futility. The Malaysian community expects more from MCA and it is time for MCA leadership to rise to the occasion.

2015: A Challenging year

This year is the year of the Goat, a symbol of meek and timid animal. It is often associated with harmony, peace and tranquility. However, what we have observed of late is a series of unexpected events and tragedies with casualties. Hence, 2015 looks like a year that will not be lacking of surprises with financial instability and even the possibility of economic turmoil.

The dramatic drop in oil prices from US$115 to less than US$60 a barrel will be the biggest financial challenge that the Malaysian Government has to confront. Oil accounts for one third of the government coffers. The dramatic drop of revenue and the decrease in dividend from Petronas will be a major negative impact on the Government’s revenue. While the Government may save from oil subsidies, this will not be enough to cover the shortfall from the oil revenue. Hence, will the 2015 development budget be reduced or we may have to trim the expenditure budget. Trimming the development budget will affect growth and reducing the operating expenditure will be a tough call as it is not easy to trim the fat of the Government’s machinery.

China, Europe and Japan slowdown will negatively impact our trade and export. Commodity and oil palm prices will drop because of lack of demand. Depreciation of the Malaysian Ringgit against the US currency will benefit some export sectors that receive their payment in US currency. However, some of the import goods may become more expensive.

While the GST is supported by the majority of rakyat and is a positive development in financial taxation system, it will however lead to increase of inflation of 1-2 percent. Technical glitches will appear in the early stages and it is our fervent hope that our government agencies, especially customs will really exercise caution in their hand holding exercise during the early stages of GST implementation. 

The politics of race and religion will continue to rear its ugly head. While the voice of moderation is heard loud and clear, political leadership and management are urgently required to manage these voices of moderation against the minority of extremists. We should not let the minority of extremists hold us to ransom. Hopefully sanity, rationality and moderation will prevail.

PAS will not give up on its implementation of Hudud. Rakyat will be waiting to witness how DAP and PKR will implement its agreed to disagree with PAS on Hudud.

Chinese Mother Tongue Education

I observe that in the recent UMNO divisional AGM, many divisions have passed on a resolution calling for the Government to either abolish SRJK (C) or to stop the construction of new SRJK (C) schools. This is an old issue often used by politicians from both political divide to make them look great and good.

In the MCA AGM, Education, especially in mother tongue education is a sure hot topic. Politicians must not forget that freedom of education and the right to study mother tongue education is enshrined in the Constitution. Blaming Chinese education for disunity sounds like a desperate politician unable to understand the underlying cause of disunity in a multi racial country.

Opposition like any opposition party of the world is there to discredit the Government. Unfortunately UMNO politicians seem to take the bait, like hook line and sinker. Mother tongue education will not be an issue and the opposition will have no opportunity to exploit it if the Government gives adequate, equal and fair treatment to the Chinese education without neglecting Bahasa Melayu. It is only the naive that believes a singular education system will create unity in Malaysia.

I thought Malaysians are always proud of our strength in diversity. 57 years after independence, we seem to lay the blame on diversity and a bilingual education system as a root to our disunity among the ethnic groups. 15% of the Chinese school enrolment comes from Non-Chinese and the percentage is increasing everywhere. Are you saying parents are not sensitive to their children’s needs? A parent is most concerned about their children’s education irrespective of their social status. They want the best for their children.

There are many examples in the world that in a mono ethnic country with same religion and mother tongue but they are the most disunited people. In these countries, opposition do not come from a single ethnic group; there are deeper issues involved in disunity, on which I do not wish to go into detail.

So, hopefully some UMNO divisional leaders will wake up, this issue will not bring any benefit, both to the party and in the General Election. It is the intolerance and refusal to accept the different stream of education that causes us more ethnic tension. If some UMNO leaders does not wake up to today’s political reality in Malaysia, UMNO and BN will miss the train and start the blame game. Progressive and competitive nation should encourage its citizen to be multilingual but unfortunately, some politicians just ignored the elephant

in the room. They choose to get the 5 minutes publicity.

_______________________________________________________________

我发现在最近召开的巫统区部大会上，许多的巫统区部通过议决，促请政府废除华小或停止兴建新的华小。这其实是朝野政客惯用的老调，他们无非是要借此来逞英雄。

在马华全国代表大会，教育课题特别是谈到母语教育，始终是一项热门的辩题。从政者必须谨记，享有自由教育和学习母语教育的权力，是我国联邦宪法赋予和保障的。归咎于华文教育导致人民不团结，显然的失意政客根本不了解，在多元种族的国度里，到底什么才是造成不团结的原因。

我国的反对党，就和全世界的反对党一样，目的就是要抹黑政府。不幸的是，巫统的政客似乎竟然也采取这种伎俩。如果政府是公平、合理和适度的对待华小，而同时又没有忽略国语，那么母语教育将不会成为课题，反对党也就没有机会加以利用渲染。只有天真无知的人士，才会认为单一语文教育才会促进全民团结。

我想全体马来西亚人都会对我们拥有的多元特色感到骄傲。独立57年以来，我们好像一直把多元和多语教育制度，看成是造成不同族群无法团结的根源。目前华小有15%的学生是非华裔，而且这个比率还往上升。难道你认为父母对子女的需求不甚在意吗？任何的家长，不管他们是怎样的社会背景，都是非常关注子女的教育，他们要给孩子最好的一切。

世界上有一些国家，虽然它们是单一种族，而且是相同宗教信仰和同样的母语，可是他们却是最不团结的民族。在这些国家里，反对党并不是来自某个单一的族群。实际上国民不团结有许许多多的远因近由，不过我不愿在这里详谈。

所以我希望一些巫统的区部领袖能觉悟，这样的课题对党和大选，都不会带来任何的好处。其实就是因为无法容忍和拒绝接受不同源流的教育体系，才导致族群之间的关系紧张。如果一些巫统领袖还不能认清今时今日大马的政治现实状况，那么巫统和国阵将会丧失时机，最后落得互相指责的地步。

一个进步和更具竞争力的国家，是应该鼓励她的子民掌握多种语言，遗憾的是许多政客却不愿面对和接受事实，而只是选择沉醉在短暂的自我宣传。