New Challenges Ahead in 2009! / 新年新挑战

May the New Year bring peace, good health and prosperity to all my readers.


Year 2009 will be a tough year for everyone. The financial turmoil and meltdown in America has become a global issue and Malaysia is not spared as well.

Politically, we are confronted with the Kuala Terengganu by-election. Although the outcome of the by-election will not change the power of BN at the Federal level; however, it is significant in many other aspects.

A few issues to ponder upon in this by-election:

1) The reputation of Deputy Prime Minister and the Prime Minister in waiting Dato’ Sri Najib Tun Razak is at stake as he is leading the campaign.

2) Will Malay voters support UMNO and BN in a state where political awareness is high and no seat is regarded as safe?

3) Will the Chinese, whose number 8787 (11.4%) support UMNO and BN candidates for in the 308 election? The BN candidate for Parliament constituency actually lost in the Chinese majority area.

This battle is very different from Permatang Pauh since there is no brand name candidates. They are all local boys.

All the big guns from the political divide will be on the battleground, more so to influence fence sitters.

For the Malay voters, majority has their inclination and political affiliations. Off course there are the minority who are the fence sitters.

However, the Chinese voters’ inclination is difficult to gauge. Nonetheless, the core group of MCA supporters is always there.

Since this is by-election, there will be a lot of door-to-door campaigning.

I always suspect its effectiveness if it is not done properly and often more to show that some leaders are ‘working hard’ for BN.

Often the VIP leaders are surrounded by a lot of followers and really there is little interaction between the candidates and the voters.

I often prefer the low-key approach where small group by BN workers, who are local leading the VIP leader and candidate going from house to house with interaction and problem recorded, with follow-up action to resolve and not a quick swing as if the voter will vote a particular candidate because he has the opportunity to shake the hand of the VIP and the candidate.

Gone are those days where voters are excited to see the VIPs. They have seen them too often in television and print media and there is no thrill to the voters anymore.

The soft touch is the preferred method of campaigning. Handouts will be undertaken by both the political divide. It may influence the small number of fence sitter. It is often a question of since it does no harm, why not do it?

For BN, public rally often do not attract the crowd. It can be disheartening, as most voters like to hear speakers critical of government. Government policies are boring topics.

On national issue, I suspect that it will not figure out prominently. Development issue, especially local issues will definitely be exploited to the full by PAS. Often there are weaknesses and poor delivery system of the local council. This will haunt the BN candidates. This time, it will not be an exception.

I understand that there are local issues that have not been resolved like flood, poor drainage system, shops use for bird nest cultivations and completed project without CF.

Rapid resolution of these problems will do the BN candidate a lot of good.

Of course I am involved in the by-election campaign.

Happy campaigning and good luck!

2009年将是艰难的一年。美国的经济和金融风暴已祸殃全球，让马来西亚也不能幸免。

在政治领域，我们正面对瓜拉丁加奴补选的挑战。虽然这场补选的成绩不会改变国阵成为联邦政府的地位，但对其他方面却影响深远。

有几项课题值得我们思考的：

1.副首相拿督斯里纳吉的声誉和形象。领军助选将考验这名候任首相的声望。

2.当地社会的政治意识强盛，也没有所谓的安全区，这场战国阵和巫统是否能取得马来选民的支持？

3.当地8千787名（11.4％）的华裔选民，会否像308大选时一样支持巫统和国阵的候选人？若分析该国会议席的得票，其实国阵的候选人，在华人占多数的地区无一胜选。

瓜丁补选和峇东埔一战全然不同。这场补选没有明星效应，被派上阵的都是道地的瓜丁人。而各政党的大头也纷纷前往助选，奋力影响和争取中立票。

大部分的马来选民其实都有自己的政治倾向，当然还有少数中立者仍在观望。华裔选民的意向则难以断测。然而，在瓜丁马华始终有一群核心支持者。

既然是补选，必将有很多沿户拜票访问的活动。沿户拜票的活动，若没又妥善筹备和进行，通常只变成一些领袖的卖命秀，并未达到真正目的。

一般上，在沿户访问时，贵宾或领袖们身旁都会围绕着许多支持者，这导致候选人和选民之间的交流受限。

因此，我个人较倾信与选民低姿态接触，由当地的国阵助选小组带领高层领袖和候选人，沿户到选民家中拜访直接交流和听取问题，让选民真切感受到候选人的诚意，而无需人多势众以致纷扰；访问时也不能敷衍待之，以为选民和大人物及候选人握手后，就会投你一票。

以前，对选民来说，得以会见大人物是一件兴奋难得的事。如今，他们可经常在媒体上接触这些人物，见面时已不再新鲜。

软接触往往是最好的拜票策略。递派传单虽然影响力不大，可能只成功影响少数选民和一些中立者。基于无害但用无妨的原理，传单依然是所有政党至今都必用的策略之一。

国阵举办的公开演说已不能吸引群众，这让人多么沮丧。如今，大多数人都喜欢听演说者批判政府，谈政府政策只会把他们给闷慌。我也相信回教党不会高谈阔论国家大事，反而会充分利用发展课题，特别是地方问题来攻击国阵。

据我了解，瓜丁有许多地方问题困扰选民多年迟迟未获解决，包括水灾、恶劣的排水系统、滥用店屋进行养燕、竣工屋业没有入伙纸等问题。

上述问题若能迅速解决，必能大力协助国阵候选人。

当然，我不会置身度外。我也会参与助选，奋力助选。祝国阵同僚好运。


踏入2009年，希望这只牛会为大家带来更和平、健康和繁荣的一年。