Monday, January 5, 2009

New Challenges Ahead in 2009! / 新年新挑战

May the New Year bring peace, good health and prosperity to all my readers.


Year 2009 will be a tough year for everyone. The financial turmoil and meltdown in America has become a global issue and Malaysia is not spared as well.

Politically, we are confronted with the Kuala Terengganu by-election. Although the outcome of the by-election will not change the power of BN at the Federal level; however, it is significant in many other aspects.

A few issues to ponder upon in this by-election:

1) The reputation of Deputy Prime Minister and the Prime Minister in waiting Dato’ Sri Najib Tun Razak is at stake as he is leading the campaign.

2) Will Malay voters support UMNO and BN in a state where political awareness is high and no seat is regarded as safe?

3) Will the Chinese, whose number 8787 (11.4%) support UMNO and BN candidates for in the 308 election? The BN candidate for Parliament constituency actually lost in the Chinese majority area.

This battle is very different from Permatang Pauh since there is no brand name candidates. They are all local boys.

All the big guns from the political divide will be on the battleground, more so to influence fence sitters.

For the Malay voters, majority has their inclination and political affiliations. Off course there are the minority who are the fence sitters.

However, the Chinese voters’ inclination is difficult to gauge. Nonetheless, the core group of MCA supporters is always there.

Since this is by-election, there will be a lot of door-to-door campaigning.

I always suspect its effectiveness if it is not done properly and often more to show that some leaders are ‘working hard’ for BN.

Often the VIP leaders are surrounded by a lot of followers and really there is little interaction between the candidates and the voters.

I often prefer the low-key approach where small group by BN workers, who are local leading the VIP leader and candidate going from house to house with interaction and problem recorded, with follow-up action to resolve and not a quick swing as if the voter will vote a particular candidate because he has the opportunity to shake the hand of the VIP and the candidate.

Gone are those days where voters are excited to see the VIPs. They have seen them too often in television and print media and there is no thrill to the voters anymore.

The soft touch is the preferred method of campaigning. Handouts will be undertaken by both the political divide. It may influence the small number of fence sitter. It is often a question of since it does no harm, why not do it?

For BN, public rally often do not attract the crowd. It can be disheartening, as most voters like to hear speakers critical of government. Government policies are boring topics.

On national issue, I suspect that it will not figure out prominently. Development issue, especially local issues will definitely be exploited to the full by PAS. Often there are weaknesses and poor delivery system of the local council. This will haunt the BN candidates. This time, it will not be an exception.

I understand that there are local issues that have not been resolved like flood, poor drainage system, shops use for bird nest cultivations and completed project without CF.

Rapid resolution of these problems will do the BN candidate a lot of good.

Of course I am involved in the by-election campaign.

Happy campaigning and good luck!

2009年将是艰难的一年。美国的经济和金融风暴已祸殃全球,让马来西亚也不能幸免。

在政治领域,我们正面对瓜拉丁加奴补选的挑战。虽然这场补选的成绩不会改变国阵成为联邦政府的地位,但对其他方面却影响深远。

有几项课题值得我们思考的:

1.副首相拿督斯里纳吉的声誉和形象。领军助选将考验这名候任首相的声望。

2.当地社会的政治意识强盛,也没有所谓的安全区,这场战国阵和巫统是否能取得马来选民的支持?

3.当地8千787名(11.4%)的华裔选民,会否像308大选时一样支持巫统和国阵的候选人?若分析该国会议席的得票,其实国阵的候选人,在华人占多数的地区无一胜选。

瓜丁补选和峇东埔一战全然不同。这场补选没有明星效应,被派上阵的都是道地的瓜丁人。而各政党的大头也纷纷前往助选,奋力影响和争取中立票。

大部分的马来选民其实都有自己的政治倾向,当然还有少数中立者仍在观望。华裔选民的意向则难以断测。然而,在瓜丁马华始终有一群核心支持者。

既然是补选,必将有很多沿户拜票访问的活动。沿户拜票的活动,若没又妥善筹备和进行,通常只变成一些领袖的卖命秀,并未达到真正目的。

一般上,在沿户访问时,贵宾或领袖们身旁都会围绕着许多支持者,这导致候选人和选民之间的交流受限。

因此,我个人较倾信与选民低姿态接触,由当地的国阵助选小组带领高层领袖和候选人,沿户到选民家中拜访直接交流和听取问题,让选民真切感受到候选人的诚意,而无需人多势众以致纷扰;访问时也不能敷衍待之,以为选民和大人物及候选人握手后,就会投你一票。

以前,对选民来说,得以会见大人物是一件兴奋难得的事。如今,他们可经常在媒体上接触这些人物,见面时已不再新鲜。

软接触往往是最好的拜票策略。递派传单虽然影响力不大,可能只成功影响少数选民和一些中立者。基于无害但用无妨的原理,传单依然是所有政党至今都必用的策略之一。

国阵举办的公开演说已不能吸引群众,这让人多么沮丧。如今,大多数人都喜欢听演说者批判政府,谈政府政策只会把他们给闷慌。我也相信回教党不会高谈阔论国家大事,反而会充分利用发展课题,特别是地方问题来攻击国阵。

据我了解,瓜丁有许多地方问题困扰选民多年迟迟未获解决,包括水灾、恶劣的排水系统、滥用店屋进行养燕、竣工屋业没有入伙纸等问题。

上述问题若能迅速解决,必能大力协助国阵候选人。

当然,我不会置身度外。我也会参与助选,奋力助选。祝国阵同僚好运。


踏入2009年,希望这只牛会为大家带来更和平、健康和繁荣的一年。

11 comments:

Poo Ching Loong said...

Good luck Dr. Hope BN win this.

And sincerely hope that KT Chinese will support MCA, as a team.

Ahjamal said...

happy new year to you Dr. Before you embark to be part of the election for BN let us be open. Since when has MCA help all the chinese . They only help themselves
and go along with the dirty UMNO. Today MCA is not the MCA before it is
all slave to master issue just shameful to here any MCA Leaders talk nothing for the good.

Bangsa Cina Malaysia said...

how on earth are MCA going to help the chinese
when the president and deputy do not see eye to eye...

yakuzanam said...

happy new year and best of health, dr. chua.

kt by-election is definitely going to be an interesting one to kick-off 2009 with almost equal percentage of win for both sides, even though the previous general election's result favours bn's candidate. this by-election's result MIGHT probably indicates a bit of the outcome of the upcoming general election in few years time.

personally, i do feel that the 'tsunami' and frustration of the rakyats towards bn-led government should have slighty faded with pakatan's 'NATO' (No Action Talk Only) behaviour, particularly in dealing with the d-day of 16th Sept 2008.

i have malay friends who mainly were once die-hard fans of anwar ibrahim are now feeling greatly cheated by his team's promise of taking-over the government. however, most of them are still strong supporter of pas. then again, they feel pissed off with pas being in the pakatan's team. so, there's a bit of dilemma on this group of people. they hated dap's extremism.

the, the handing over of power from pm badawi to dpm najip also gives a slight improvement to the whole image of bn as a start.

in term of mca, most chinese still feel a bit uncertain about the direction that mca is heading. it really seems that mca is lacking of strong re-branding after party election. it was 'okay' for the first few days but then, the rating dropped day by days.

worse still, having group like iwg (claim to be part of the big family) non-stop 'barking' at own commrades during critical time like this is rather silly and unacceptable. sometimes, i really wonder who are they and what's their intention. are they really talking about integrity or 'individually-greedy' to seek individual popularity among mca members and kaki-bodek. well, we shall keep a close eye to ensure their own integrity. mca can no longer sustain further internal cracks.

as mentioned by dr.chua, the outcome of kt by-election will not affect bn's status as the ruling government. there's not much time left till bn has to face the upcoming general election, which is more crucial. mca should juz move forward and re-brand ...

am rather annoyed with ahjamal's comment about mca not helping chinese community. well, for a start, ahjamal should visit the local universities now to see the number of chinese/non-malays student in the classrooms and number of them having full sponsorship for good programmes abroad to places like japan to do ENGINEERING ! my best friend's sister is one of the lucky ones and her classmates have almost 30 - 40% chinese ! ahjamal, it was different in the mid-1990s during my time. i was one of the unlucky ones, NOT being able to enter local universities even with 'qualified' result and numerous appeals. education is of utmost important for chinese civilisation (if u r a chinese) and mca realised this. this is ONLY one of the examples that i can illustrate to u. if interested to know more, i can always dare you to join mca for 6 months and dap for another 6 months. then, u tell me your answer in a year time if mca has or never help chinese community. it's always easy for people like you, sitting outside the circle to stereotype and comment.

finally, all the very best wishes from myself to bn in this coming kt by-election.

yakuzanam said...

happy new year and best of health, dr. chua.

kt by-election is definitely going to be an interesting one to kick-off 2009 with almost equal percentage of win for both sides, even though the previous general election's result favours bn's candidate. this by-election's result MIGHT probably indicates a bit of the outcome of the upcoming general election in few years time.

personally, i do feel that the 'tsunami' and frustration of the rakyats towards bn-led government should have slighty faded with pakatan's 'NATO' (No Action Talk Only) behaviour, particularly in dealing with the d-day of 16th Sept 2008.

i have malay friends who mainly were once die-hard fans of anwar ibrahim are now feeling greatly cheated by his team's promise of taking-over the government. however, most of them are still strong supporter of pas. then again, they feel pissed off with pas being in the pakatan's team. so, there's a bit of dilemma on this group of people. they hated dap's extremism.

the, the handing over of power from pm badawi to dpm najip also gives a slight improvement to the whole image of bn as a start.

in term of mca, most chinese still feel a bit uncertain about the direction that mca is heading. it really seems that mca is lacking of strong re-branding after party election. it was 'okay' for the first few days but then, the rating dropped day by days.

worse still, having group like iwg (claim to be part of the big family) non-stop 'barking' at own commrades during critical time like this is rather silly and unacceptable. sometimes, i really wonder who are they and what's their intention. are they really talking about integrity or 'individually-greedy' to seek individual popularity among mca members and kaki-bodek. well, we shall keep a close eye to ensure their own integrity. mca can no longer sustain further internal cracks.

as mentioned by dr.chua, the outcome of kt by-election will not affect bn's status as the ruling government. there's not much time left till bn has to face the upcoming general election, which is more crucial. mca should juz move forward and re-brand ...

am rather annoyed with ahjamal's comment about mca not helping chinese community. well, for a start, ahjamal should visit the local universities now to see the number of chinese/non-malays student in the classrooms and number of them having full sponsorship for good programmes abroad to places like japan to do ENGINEERING ! my best friend's sister is one of the lucky ones and her classmates have almost 30 - 40% chinese ! ahjamal, it was different in the mid-1990s during my time. i was one of the unlucky ones, NOT being able to enter local universities even with 'qualified' result and numerous appeals. education is of utmost important for chinese civilisation (if u r a chinese) and mca realised this. this is ONLY one of the examples that i can illustrate to u. if interested to know more, i can always dare you to join mca for 6 months and dap for another 6 months. then, u tell me your answer in a year time if mca has or never help chinese community. it's always easy for people like you, sitting outside the circle to stereotype and comment.

finally, all the very best wishes from myself to bn in this coming kt by-election.

吾説八道 (芳伯林) said...

华社要马华做的工做是民联所不能做到的事情。例如,华人农业地问题,建政治/经济/文化共享,建中,美的拉曼分院等。人民是因为马华太没用才投民联,不是因为民联有三斗六臂。

呉 和豪 said...

YB Dato Seri Dato Chua Soi Lek

"Often the VIP leaders are surrounded by a lot of followers and really there is little interaction between the candidates and the voters."

The performance of any organisation not depending on the top leader alone , we can not depend on the top leader to do everytthings,jobs need to be delegated.The most important things for a top leader to do is to Set the right direction. It is important for any member of an organisation to feel he /she is important, so that they have the motivation to work hard.

呉 和豪 said...

YB Dato Seri Dr.Chua Soi Lek

"因此,我个人较倾信与选民低姿态接触,由当地的国阵助选小组带领高层领袖和候选人,沿户到选民家中拜访直接交流和听取问题,让选民真切感受到候选人的诚意,而无需人多势众以致纷扰;访问时也不能敷衍待之,以为选民和大人物及候选人握手后,就会投你一票。"
最重要的是效益而不是气派。应让候选人与当地居民交流, 能够了解民生问题,改进当地居民的生活。

Robert Lua Khang Wei said...

Dr, your analysis is quite sharp.

Good luck and happy new year to you.

NEIL said...

MCA is been make a laughing stock in KT.The chinese there are fed up with MCA becos they know that MCA is not like the MCA they use to know.Now MCA is just a party for personal rivalry,a party that fight for self survival,a party that want to show off their powers,a party that don't do what it preaches,a party that is outdated and fill with old and expired ideas and a party that have forsaken the chinese.MCA can't represent the chinese becos your president speaks with a a grinding teeth.He hold grudge against those who don't vote for him.How can he lead a party and be president when he can't even forgive and forget in order to move on.He is too arrogant to be the president of MCA.He was voted into power by all those who are sleeping.
As for KT,reliable sources says that that the chinese will not vote for umno becos of what Ahmad Ismail have called the chinese 'squatters'.And the chinese hated MCA becos you all never stand up and make a strong statement ,condemning umno for not punishing Ahmad Ismail.You as MCA VP,must stand up and speak with force,demanding that this Ahmad Ismail be pubnished or sent to Kamunting.For not doing so,you are a party to all crooks and liars.And today ,with God grace,KT is where the chinese will get even with MCA for the neglect and coward altitude shown by MCA.If there have been no election like this for another 1-2 years then the chnese would have forgotten all about Ahmad Ismail,but then this memory are still too fresh in their minds.Don't forget,the chinese have still the Keris waving issue to settle with MCA.These days the chinese are more sensitive on issues that affected their names and pride,not like mahathir's years,they are more concern about their business and their children's education.So anything that directly affect their names and prides must be instantly dealt with strongly.There are also issues like KetuananMelayu which are getting very irritating and MCA haven't come up with a way to deal with this issue.Everytime MCA tries to say something about this ,umno started to shout about not interfering in their rights and that we must discus this indoor.If they can publicly shout about Ketuanan Melayu, then why can't MCA counter them publicly.All this issues are directly affecting the effectiveness of MCA as a party that have been always boasting to look after the chinese till death do us part.For all that have been said,this by election will be a barometer not only for umno but also MCA.Whether these 8,000 plus chinese voters voted for umno remain to be seen.If umno fail to capture KT,then umno/BN is truly on the road to destruction and MCA is partly to be blamed.For all I hard here in KT,the odds are against umno.This stake are high and PAS is gaining grounds fast.Keep your fingers cross and if you worship the goddess of mercy,then ask her for her blessing that umno will win,if not your VP seat is also not safe.My bet is on PAS and I can say this with my hand on my heart.Prove me wrong.What I hear is not what you think!

Darick said...

As long as MCA remain as a race based party then MCA will never ever rise up ur head tell off regime racist umno !
Y?
bcos MCA was in power/position is based on regime's malay support !
don beleive?
nex GE, lets all MCA big gun fight in Bkt Bintang, Seputeh, Kepong, Ipoh Barat, Ipoh Timur &..... sin MCA claim u r representing d 'chinese' !
KT regime umno 'BUY-Election' will fail miserably !!!!

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