The Fall of PR-State Government/ 民联州政府的倒台

Image taken from Google Images.

Perak Flag.

It is said that two can play the same game.

Since the failure of Anwar to form the federal government on September 16 last year, there have been talks of YBs crossing over from BN to PR or vice versa. Finally, it was the defection of PR state assemblymen to BN that caused the downfall of the Perak PR state government.

The government, both federal and state should not be formed by relying on support by defector. It sets a bad precedent and does not reflect the wish of the voters.

The 3 PR ADUNs probably have been forced to a corner. The concept of power sharing is often easier said than done.

After 308 election, I’ve written in my blog that after the victory, the PR government must learn how to manage power sharing.

The winner may want to enjoy the cake of their victory and it is the sharing of this cake that is the cause of friction among coalition partners.

BN has the advantage of a long tested module. It may have its weaknesses but it has withstood the test of time until the 308 election.

Earlier, when the 2 PR ADUNs were charged in court for corruption, it was alleged that it was a frame up by the government. Now that they are in BN, the court case will still proceed.

If they are found guilty after they have exhausted their legal avenue, they may have to vacate their seat. If this occurs 2 years before the next General Election, which is due in 2013, then a by-election may have to be called.

If BN loses these 2 seats, the BN government will then fall. However, if they are not found guilty, there will be a lot of speculation also that this is because of back door influence.

Either way BN government stands to lose by accepting these 2 ADUNs.

The PR MB should convey a general assembly and test whether he will get confidence of majority vote of ADUNs. If not, he should resign and dissolve the state assembly and call for fresh election.

Image taken from Google Images. Istana Iskandriah, Kuala Kangsar

Any demonstration is uncalled for. You’ll only aggravate the situation and if not properly managed, it often turns violent and is easily exploited to become racial.

This should be avoided at all costs.

It is often in crisis like this that the leadership is subjected to extreme pressure and we can see whether the leadership is a responsible one or an opportunistic leadership.

Clinging to the job will not be a honourable choice. The democratic thing is to let the state assemblymen decide.

However, in the present circumstances, if BN has simple majority in state assembly, it is unlikely that they will advise Sultan to dissolve state assembly and call for fresh election. The BN state government will then have to function with a simple majority from the support of the 3 Independents.

This may turn out to be the case when the minority calls the shot and be the power broker.

The rakyat may not look upon this power structure with favour. This high political drama will continue to drag for quite sometime.

The Perak rakyat do not need this political diversion when the country is confronted with the economic slowdown.

If the BN do a good job in this period, they may, in the long-term wins the hearts of rakyat. If not, BN ADUNs may be punished by the voters should fresh election be called within the state.

自安华在去年916夺取中央政权变天失败后，就流传着国阵与民联在玩同样的挖角游戏，有的说国阵议员将跳槽到民联，也有的说民联议员要过档国阵。

最后，是民联的州议员退党投向国阵，造成霹雳州政府倒台。

不论是州或联邦政权，都不能仰赖跳槽议员的支持來组政，这不仅立下一个极坏的先例，且无法充份反映霹州选民的意愿。

或许，这３名民联州议员是饱受严重打压，因为分享权力往往是说易行难。

３０８大选后，我曾在部落格中写道，胜选后民联政府必须要学习如何管理权力分享 。胜利者都想要分享胜利的蛋糕，但往往这个“分享”却是盟友间产生摩擦的导火线。

国阵的优点在于，它是一个经过长时间磨合与测试的组合，它或许存在弱点，但它毕竟是经过时间的考验，直至３０８大选。

稍早前，两名民联议员因贪污罪遭起诉，当时大家还斥责这是国阵政府设下的陷阱；如今虽然他们身在国阵，案件还是即將开审。

如果他们最终被判罪名成立，届时将丧失议员资格。这情况发生若在下届全国大选的前２年，即２０１３年之前，那么有关议席就必须有举行补选。

如果国阵输掉这两席，该州的国阵或会倒台；如果这两名议员最终获判无罪，那么也会出现各种揣测指这是幕后操纵审判的结果。

不论是何者，国阵都会因为招纳这两名议员而成为输家。

因此，霹雳州务大臣应召开州议会，通过投票表决验证自己是否能得到多数州议员的信任和支持。否则，他应该辞职并解散州议会，重新举行州选举。 因此，没有必要展开任何示威或抗议，这样做只会使局势火上加油，如果沒有妥善管制，甚至会演变成暴力冲突及扩大成为种族课题。

任何人都应该要竭尽所能避免上述情况发生。

在诸类的危机中，领导层通常会承受庞大的压力，但我们也可从中看出这究竟是个负责任的领导层，或是投机者。

紧捉权位不放，并不是值得称誉的做法。民主，就是让人民來做决定。

然而，在目前情况下，如果国阵在州议会取得简单多数议席，就不太可能会寻求苏丹御準解散州议会重新举行选举。那么，国阵州政府将会靠３名独立州议员的支持以获得简单多数议席执政。 最终，这关键的少数票反而成为最有权说话的人。

人民不会喜欢或希望这种权力结构的产生，而这出政治大戏还会持续一段相当的时间。国家面临经济困境之际，霹雳州人民不会要这种政权转变。

如果国阵在这段期间表现得好，或许长期下來能赢回人民的心。否则，选民会在州选举时，用选票惩罚国阵的所有议员 。