Friday, August 14, 2009

Permatang Pasir By-Election

This will be the 8th by-election since the 308 general election. There are 20,350 voters in the Permatang Pasir constituency. The Malays account for 72.3 percent, Chinese 26 percent, Indian and others 1.7 percent. This seat has been traditionally an opposition seat. In the 2008 election, PAS won with a majority of 5,433 votes.

For BN, it is not going to be an easy battle since this state seat is situated within the Parliamentary seat of Permatang Pauh. Anwar’s influence would be overwhelming. Losing the seat is more likely than winning. Hence, winning will be a bonus for BN. In fact, to be able to reduce the majority of 5,433 votes won by the previous PAS candidate will be a moral booster for BN.

UMNO’s choice of candidate will be crucial. If the candidate is accepted by most members of the division, then I am sure UMNO members will be more committed to ensure that the election machinery function effectively. This is often one of the biggest problems in BN, be it UMNO, MCA, MIC or Gerakan where the choice of candidate is crucial in facing the election. Often the lack of support by own party members can prove to be fatal in the election, more so in the by-election. When members know that the results of the by-election will not tilt the balance of political power within the state, then total commitment by BN members may be lacking.

Of course PAS members will be in high spirit in facing this by-election, not forgetting that this is their stronghold. However, the drastic reduction of the majority votes obtained by the PAS candidate in Manik Urai, Kelantan could have unnerved the confidence within the party. Hence, PAS’ party members may even work harder to prove their point that they have the support of the Malay community.

The 5,600 non-Malay voters will be crucial in this coming by-election. This is another classical example that when the Malay votes are split, then the non-Malay votes, if they are substantial, will be crucial to the victory of any party. BN will then have to pursue what we call a middle path, catering to the needs of all community. This politics of balancing can be a very delicate job, which not many will understand. The opposition will have the advantage of talking since they do not have to practice what they preach, by virtue of the fact that they are not in power at the federal level. The recent open spat between PAS and DAP is a good example of politics in action at the state level. When each party has its own agenda and having to cater to its own supporters, then open clashes become inevitable between the parties. The sale of alcohol is totally blown out of proportion by PAS and DAP. State level politics permit such open quarrel as it will not tear the nation apart. When confronted with bigger issues and if it is divisive, then the nation may be held to ransom by the political parties involved.

When chairing a few of the BN’s coordinating meeting in Selangor, I notice that there have been a lot of complaints that there is mushrooming of entertainment outlets within Selangor, especially in the Klang valley. The usual complaint is that the cyber cafes and pubs are situated near schools. This has caused a lot of dissatisfaction among the people. I am sure a lot of PAS leaders are against their own state government for approving many of these entertainment outlets. Wee Choo Keong’s outburst against the DAP EXCO member is very enlightening to us.

In the Permatang Pasir by-election, national issue will overwhelm local issues. How national issues are going to be played out will depend on the two main political parties, BN and PR.

15 comments:

zackdanial said...

Datuk ,

No comment on 10Million loan ?

michael said...

No way UMNO/BN is going to win this one.
PAS is a shoo in for this seat.

Chinese votes (>80%) are solidly behind PAS in this one, especially if Tok Guru Nik Aziz and PR Perak MB Nizar make their appearances here.

Lim GE is a very popular CM, especially to the Chinese in Penang.
UMNO may have to face this election by themselves, with their Malay supporters.

talkosong said...

My personal opinion is that these factors will surely affect the outcome of this by-election...

1,the death of Teoh Beng Hock.
2,Datuk Chua Jui Meng joining PKR.
3,the spat between OTK and TKS.
4,the reversal of the teaching of math and science in bahasa.
5,Khir Toyo castle.
6,Perak fiasco.
7,the failure to tackle H1 N1.

The malay votes will stay with Pas and the chinese votes will be the deciding factor.With so much at stake, the chinese will tilt more to Pas.The Indians will be the fence sitter but if convince they will go for Pas.

My bet is Pas will win with a increase majority.

talkosong said...

Read chedet posting today....

quote..11. I cannot read Chinese but Utusan Malaysia kindly translated the editorial in the Sin Chew Jit Poh. The editorial basically said that giving "Ang Pow" would not win over the voters.

eddy said...

I think BN will win by 1500 votes if voter turnout is 75%. However if BN lost, it would be to the wire just like Manek Urai.

PAS's friendship with DAP and PKR is beginning to unravel, despite the photo ops showing everbody shaking hand and smiling rather reluctantly I may add at Tropicana the other day. PAS had to humble pie in the beer for sale issue by the DAP and PKR and this will affect the majority Malay voters at Permatang Pasir who voted for PAS in March 2009.

kenny said...

My feeling is that BN and UMNO will get kicked between the legs in Pematang Pasir. The rakyat is sick of the antics of UMNO and BN.

Tuanku said...

Dear Dr Chua,


You quoted that UMNO’s choice of candidate will be crucial. Yes, UMNO goons are too silly and stupid to select a candidate, Permatang Pauh Umno division secretary Rohaizat Othman (below), a 38-year-old lawyer, is BN's candidate for the upcoming Permatang Pasir by-election in Penang.

Many Penangites know Rohaizat is a questionable BN candidate. This is because Rohaizat's name has appeared on the Bar Council report on disciplinary orders for January - March 2008. The report revealed the case against Rohaizat had been initiated under Legal Profession Act 1986 and was struck off on March 7, a day before the last general election. He openly admitted that the internal disciplinary action initiated by Bar Council on him on an allegation of unprofessional conduct had been struck off in March 2008.

In short, do you think Penangite voters will vote for an unprofessional lawyer to become their ADUN in Permatang Pasir ? Think again. We believed that Pakatan PAS candidate is better choice than unprofessional BN goon based on his bad track record. 99%Chinese Penangites have openly continued to support PR candidate because a vote for PAS is a vote for Chinese DAP in Penang.

The open spat between PAS and DAP recently is good for CAT system, unlike MCA and Gerakan are too coward, kiasi, kiasu and not dare to voice out directly against the BIG BULLY UMNO in BN. Malaysians want to know the true stories today.

I bet PAS will win this by election since BN unprofessional candidate is a weak questionable candidate. It will be 8 BN defeats in by-elections after 12GE in Malaysia.

Lee SH said...

The recent infighting of the PR does give the BN some space to move but this may not be sufficient to win over. Simply because BN also has its fair share of problem, particularly the way things are being handled which is no different from the past.
Some times agreeing with PR in certain issues does not mean that BN is losing out. On the contrast, the masses will acknowledge silently that BN is sensitive and prepared to change. This will augurs well in the long run.
Leaders should not exploit racial and religious issues to gain popularity and power. I for one will look down on this kind of leaders be it BN or PR.
BN leaders especially those from UMNO must heed this advice if BN want to regain the trust of the masses.

cakappolitikmca said...

To suggest that BN can capture Permatang Pasir is a simply too far-fetch. BN should employ the strategy of an underdog, striving endlessly to reduce the margin of defeat. BN should not talk about victory too often but work doubly hard, hoping eventually to create an upset.

Remember this the only seat held by PAS. Even in the year 2004, it has retained the seat. There is a lot of "natural support" for PAS in this area. It would be difficult to break at one go while the chinese votes has not returned to BN, by all indications.

Gerakan and MCA members in the state of Penang must continue to work harder according to the opposition model, for they no longer rule the state. This something extremely difficult. So much as the component parties of PR find difficult to adjust their ruling role at state level, BN components also trapped in the same dilemma to pursue opposition politics at state level while portraying themselves as ruling parties at federal level.

BN and PR must continue to learn, unlearn and relearn to fully reorientate themselves.

GTLim said...

Dear Dr. Chua,

If BN wants to win this election, Nazib must settle the problem of Ong/Tiong.

The public perceptions till todate is that BN comprises corrupted cronies and Nazib has to show that he is against it and are getting rid of them.

There has to be some truth in the accusations being thrown around. Ong has become a joker himself and made a monkey out of MCA and BN.

Nazib must first suspend Ong and Tiong and lead a Police and MACC team to conduct an investigation starting from their accusations(good lead huh?) Put Ong/Tiong behind bars if need to be under the ISA.

I would put my bet on BN to win if Nazib does this. The BN comprising of UMNO, MIC and MCA has to justify the need for the Raayat to support them after we have been deceived for 52 already. Do they deserve the Raayat support further?????

Pearls said...

How to win?? That place is a PAS strong hold la. Even the Chinese vote for PAS. HOW!?

Some more since the March 08, BN hasnt exactly been an angel. People are not stupid..everyone can see that BN is behind every scandal that is rocking the PR boat. To some people, such tactics are bad taste.. simply not befitting of a leader. Sigh.. So, you tell me la.. HOW TO WIN!?

I see it will be another kalah malah story... maybe wont kalah so bad like in March 08 la.. not by the thousands la.. maybe less a tiny bit la.. but nevertheless, still kalah.

If BN wants to win than BN must be prepared to do the impossible.. which is, BE HUMBLE and HAVE INTEGRITY! GOD is definitely sending a message to BN and as long as BN dont get it, BN will continue to kalah all the way till the next election. I dont know about you, but if I am part of BN, I will be very afraid.. I will wake up to GOD's message.

Mike said...

In yesterday briefing Ong openly admitted there are forces within MCA and the coalition try to stop and prevent him from investigation the WPFTZ fraud case. What and whom are all these forces? He even denounced people cannot even wait 3 years….

These allegations are very serious and must be investigated thoroughly. By trying to ask both Ong and Ting to shut up and pretend things never happen is simply plain irresponsible. The MACC should immediately take up this case and don’t waste time on the Rm. 2000+ flag case which cause an innocent life. After all this case involve billion of tax payer money including a 10 millions so called donation (corruptio)?

Until you put your house in order don’t even dream of winning any by election.

呉 和豪 said...

Comrade Dr Chua
Please work hard and dilengtly to bring about the miracle , to proove your capability as the corodinating chief of BN in THE FIVE STATES. I am expectting you to bring miracle , change and also boast the morale of MCA

Pearls said...

Vote for BN?? Are you mad? The candidate has been struck off by the Bar Council ah! It looks like a CBT case to me and vote for someone who has some link to CBT? Hmmmmm... A bit the stupid right?

kenny said...

If BN want to win this by-election, why cant it get a person with a better character. Every evidence showed he is a person with low level of personal integrity.

I am sure, Datuk Seri, that as chair of BN liaison, you have been consulted on the candidate. I am very interested to know what you told UMNO.

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