Friday, November 21, 2008

No Petrol Subsidy

Now that the global oil price is at US$ 65 per barrel, the government would not be paying any subsidy. The saving can be substantial easily more than RM10 billion. Of course whether oil price will remain stable, or continue to fall is a question. There are speculations that by early next year it may drop to US$50 per barrel. While the government saved on subsidy if the oil price remains stable, it will have to decide:


a) The utilization of the saving of RM10 billion to improve public transport system. We can assume that private vehicle traffic will go up with the drop of petrol price.


b) Whether the government should set up a floor price, even if the global oil price continues to drop. We may indirectly promote Malaysia to use private vehicle if petrol price continues to drop hereby chocking our already congested roads.


c) Government need to monitor whether price on essential goods will drop, from the eateries to the public transport and other services where price have gone up purportedly became of the increase of global oil price. When petrol price increase abruptly this year, the hawker centre price of common food item went up between 20 cents to 50 cents, about 10% increase. Now will these item drop in price? Personally, I doubt it will.


d) The drop in Government revenue will be substantial by the year 2010, when the government collect taxes based on income generated in 2009. The drop in price of commodities and oil may reduce the government revenue by 30% to 40% - a substantial shortfall. This will affect the budget in 2010 and the subsequent preparation for the Ten Malaysia Development Plan.


The Economic Council need to address the issue urgently since it is not easy to cover such a substantial fall in revenue. Alternative source of revenue become urgent.


Global economic slowdown and its impact on Malaysia plus the fall in revenue of the government is the biggest challenge to all of us. By year 2010, we need more than just short term economic stimulus policies. The relaxation of 30 per cent Bumiputera equity ownership for companies seeking to be listed but have yet to fulfil the quota requirement as announced by Deputy Prime Minister is only one of the measures. More need to be done.


Economic issue will dominate the political scene in the country and may be the Achilles heel of the BN government in the coming election.


停止燃油补贴之后……

现在國際原油价格价格为每桶65美元,政府也宣布不会再继续提供补贴。节省下的金钱动辄超过百亿令吉。当然,问题是油价是否保持稳定或继续下跌。有分析预测指出,油价在明年年初可能下降到每桶50美元。当油价持续稳定,政府有必要决定如何分配省下的补贴:


a)利用节省下的百亿令吉來提升公共交通系统。我们可以预见随着油价下跌,上路的车辆数目势必增加。


)当国际原油价格持续下跌,政府是否应为油价设立底限。当汽油价格继续下跌,可能会间接鼓励國人车上路,而使到原本拥挤的道路更加堵塞。


)政府需要监督日常民生物品价格是否也应声下跌,尤其是油价上涨时也水涨船高,应声涨价的餐饮業、公共交通服务及其他服务。当汽油价格在今年突然大幅调涨,小贩中心食品价格也调涨约10%,普遍上涨2050仙。现在,这些食品是否将降价?我很怀疑。


 

)政府在2010年的稅收将大幅銳减,这是因为政府届时的收税是根据2009年的收入。商品及石油价格下跌料使政府稅收减少3040  --少了很大笔收入。这将影响2010年的财政预算案和紧接而來的第十大马计划的筹划工作。


國家经济理事会迫切要解決这项问题,因为要填補收入大减的缺口十分不容易,寻找替代的收入财源更是当务之急。


全球经济放缓对马来西亚的冲击,再加上政府收入减少己成为我们最严竣的挑战。到了2010年,我们需要的仅仅是短期的刺激经济政策,包括副首相宣布的放宽土著股权也只是其中一项措施,还有更多措施都刻不缓了。


显然,经济课题将成为我国未來政治角力的焦点,而且很可能是国阵政府在下届大选的致命要穴。

13 comments:

I swear said...

Oil is USD48.50/barrel now. In US, average petrol price is less than USD2.00/gallon which approx RM1.90/litre. Had our RM been stronger, petrol price in US could be as low as RM1.70/litre now.

南洋閩學網誌 said...

Dr.chua9

Sebelum Dato Anwar Ibrahim dan Dato Ahmad Sabri chik adakan perbahasan tentang isu subsidi minyak. Saya ada tulis satu article di ORIENTAL DAILY ,katakan
Dato tidak mempunyai pandangan jauh , tidak amalkan falsafah " menyediakan payung sebelum hujang , menggorek perigi sebelum kita rasa haus" Katakan Dato Anwar
tidak memainkan peranannya untuk memberikan pendidikan yang benar kepada rakyat sebagai pakar ekonomi yang terkenal di luar negri.
Pihak pembangkang tidak berhenti hentinya bincang dengan pendapatan minyak ,tetapi apa yang jadi pada harga minyak pada hari ini.Pada satu ketika dulu ,kita adalah salah sebuah negara yang terkaya di Asia lebih kaya dari Jepun ,Taiwan kerana negara kita terlimpah dengan galian seperti getah dan timah.Tetapi apa yang jadi pada hari ini kepada harga getah dan timah.Apakah kedudukan ekonomi Malaysia berbanding dengan Jepun dan Taiwan pada hari ini.
Sangat sangat setuju dengan Pandangan Tun Mahatir yang katakan
yang penting bukanlah galian dibawah kaki tetapi kepala kita minda kita. Setakat mana kta berjaya menuju ke arah ekonomi berasakan knowlege, itu lah satu soaalan yang kita mesti pentingkan.

Kegawatan ekonomi sekarang membawa
satu perutusan yang penting ,kita
tak boleh gantung sistem kapitaliama sepenuh ,perlulah bagi kita untuk amalkan sufficiency economy

pui ting said...

Dear All,

It does appear to me that the Malaysian government had and has been adopting fire-fighting on many of its policies. It was just barely few months ago the government had imposed windfall tax on the plantation companies following the high prices of CPO. Basically, the government has no clue on how to manage the palm oil industry for the long-haul such as all the stakeholders interests are well guarded. As demonstrated clearly to all and sundry, the authorities should have reined in the fast escalating palm oil prices early this year. Instead they were devising and thinking of ways to also share this foundamentally unsound price hike. It is short termism at play and pure greed to say the very least.

dumdum said...

This is what we need of a senior politician who can see ahead in anticipation. This is 1st class MPs material for the public to discuss and help the well being of the rakyat. Do not stir the racial harmony. At your level it must be total solidarity. Keep it up and you will get a bigger crowd following you.

Kuah La Uk said...

Dr,

This is a much better posting. Although I am not your supporter I like your thoughts this time. This is what I expect from a very senior politician. Let others discuss about something worthy of their effort. Do not allow ill-feelings to be started by you. Generate issues that benefit the nation and not the individuals. Dump your racist feelings away and others will respect you more as their leader.

南洋閩學網誌 said...

Dr.chua9 yang dihormati dan disayangi

Sebelum Dato Anwar Ibrahim dan Dato Ahmad Sabri chik adakan perbahasan tentang isu subsidi minyak. Saya ada tulis satu article di ORIENTAL DAILY东方日报 ,katakan Dato Anwar tidak mempunyai pandangan jauh , tidak amalkan falsafah " menyediakan payung sebelum hujang , menggorek perigi sebelum rasa haus" Katakan Dato Anwar tidak memainkan peranannya untuk memberikan pendidikan yang benar kepada rakyat sebagai pakar ekonomi yang terkenal di luar negri.
Pada masa itu pihak pembangkang tidak berhenti hentinya sebut pendapatan minyak PETRONAS.Tetapi apa yang jadi pada harga minyak pada hari ini.Pada satu ketika dulu ,kita adalah salah sebuah negara yang terkaya di Asia lebih kaya dari Jepun ,Taiwan kerana negara kita terlimpah dengan galian seperti getah dan timah.Tetapi apa yang jadi pada hari ini kepada harga getah dan timah.Apakah kedudukan ekonomi Malaysia berbanding dengan Jepun dan Taiwan pada hari ini.
Saya sangat setuju dengan Pandangan Tun Mahatir yang katakan sekitika bahawa " yang penting bukanlah galian dibawah kaki tetapi kepala kita ,minda kita. Setakat mana kta berjaya menuju ke arah ekonomi berasakanpengetahuan, itu lah satu soaalan yang kita mesti jawab.

Kegawatan ekonomi sekarang membawa satu perutusan yang penting ,kita tidak boleh percaya sepenuh penuh nya kepada SISTEM KAPITALISMA yang memusnah jika tak terkawal.Kita juga harus mempratikan " Economi Berdikari", dalam erti kata lain Dasar ekonomi dan ekonomi mesti lah berdasarkan kepada kemampuan dan kehendak negara.

Apakah kita buat untuk
mengeksloitkan advantages yang ada pada negara kita untuk memperkembangkan biotechnology di negara kita.Apakah yang kita buat untuk meliharakan sumber yang ada dihutan rimba. Setakat mana kita berjaya dalam penyelidikan hasil rimba untuk menghasilkan hasil tambah nilai
Kenapa pengilang dari Taiwan nak pergi VIENAM untuk mendirikan kilang besi dan bukan Malaysia sungguhpun infrastructure dan sistem pendidikan di Malaysia adalah lebih baik dari Vienam.'

Adakah kita berjaya untuk menarik pelabur dari negeri China yang telah menunjukan minat untuk mendirikan kilang berasakan bahan petrokimia di Malaysia.

Pada Pendapat saya bilangan menteri MCA mesti ditambah ,kerana kita mempunyai ramai peminpin yang berkebolehan untuk membantu negara bagi menangdangi kegawatan Ekonomi.

Hasrat rakyat mestilah diutamakan kerana peminpin boleh diibaratkan sebagai perahu,rakyat boleh diibaratkan sebagai air.Air dapat mengapung perahu ,air juga dapat menenggelamkan perahu.

Mike said...

It is quite to disturb to note despite the sharp fall in international crude price our petrol pump price still remains relative high at Rm 2.00.

According to Malaysia previous petrol price vs. international crude price statistic, our current petrol price should be around Rm 1.60 or 40 cents lower. The government appears to be relatively slow in responding to this drastic price drop. From news media announcement, the government gave us an impression that she is more concern with the profit and loss of petrol station operators rather than the average citizen well being.

I agreed with Dr. Chua, despite the recent five attempts to drop petrol price to control our inflation, not much seems to be dropping. I had a plate of mixed rice the other day, still cost me Rm 4.00 (with one veg and one meat dish only) + drink, the total cost of lunch is Rm 5.00.

The reason to a simple men like me is rather trivial, when petrol jumped 78 cents, Electrical bill also sharply increased 20 to 40% and so does gas price. But today beside petrol, other still refuse to lower the tariff and price. So you see businessmen are claiming most of their operation cost hasn’t really come down yet.

The government must look carefully at the whole financial crisis and provide coherence and holistic approaches to address these issues and not just in a haphazard and ad hoc manner. For example;

1) Transport ministry enforcing back seat safety belts but Plus highway is giving out 10% discount to encourage light vehicle to travel in the wee hours of morning (12pm-7am).
2) Consumer ministry promoting price reducing campaign but bus fare is anticipated to go up early next year (by 100%?). So more will be forced to drive causing all kind of problems..
3) Government pushing for austerity drive and yet government official still spending money like nothing has happen before (one metropolitan mayor had spent over million of dollar for oversea trip and some MPs spent close to million to host festive season open house in one year).

And more ……

The government must led us by example and not just playing lip service. Until such time those in-charges are sincere in looking into the actual root causes of the problems, there will be no real long term solution to this.

NEIL said...

The gov't is very slow in responding to the financial crises enveloping the whole word.Instead of dealing with this urgent problem,both Najib and AAB are off ,leaving this country without any leadership.Just imagine a country without any leader,while in other countries ,leaders are busy ,tackling the problems head on.Where is their priorities!

Pearls said...

Oh please!! How many times does the government think they can bluff us about saving from petrol will go into improviding or upgrading public transportation.. yadda.. yadda... yadda..

Please la... let's not tell anymore lies la. The last time also the same story and we saw what the crap happened. Public transport didnt improve but got worse... Sigh.. so, not again!

All this save here, put there.. aiyooo... duno la.. everything also the government say.. of course, the government will say anything and everything to their advantage la... Sheesh!

Zashnain said...

The Govt does not have any sustainable plans to counter the recession. The Govt is in denial.

We live in a nation which leads the goat straight to the dragon's lair.

pui ting said...

Dear all,

The government in its effort to boost the economy had recently proposed the EPF contribution be slashed from 11% to 8%. However, EPF contributors could choose to continue contributing 11% but a form has to be signed and failure to do so would mean an automatic deduction of 8%. This has led to many EPF contributors denouncing the move by EPF as it should be the other way i.e. the 8% contributor should step forward to EPF stations and sign those forms. The rationale of such a move by the government is to spur spending among its rakyat. But the most important point that many may have missed out is that 8% contributor would end up paying higher income-tax. Assuming a person who earns RM4,000 per month, the taxable income is RM3,560 if 11% EPF deduction is applied and he ends up paying an income taxable of RM77 as oppose to RM109 if he chooses to contribute 8%. In other words, the government will end up raking more money in terms of taxable income should most EPF contributor opt for the 8% deduction.

what say you on the above matter?

jararaca said...

shahrir is a big liar. We were told by this liar that the gov keep the petrol price at a 30sen subsidies. Then the next minute, this liar changes his stories again. Now we are not only paying market price. We pay more taxes too. Which is above market price!!

Gov is clueless. The petrol price increase swiftly but take ages and countless of 15sens deductions to reflect the falling pricing. Even have the cheek to claims credit for penny deductions.

Our public transport is a failure. Setting the floor price will only burden the people. Traffic congestion is not solved by increase in fuel price but provide a competitive efficient system. People will change willingly. eg. Singapore and HK.

now dr. chua monitor this.

GOHHOEHOE said...

Dr.chua9 yang dihormati

1)Saya tidak menganggap andaian yang dibuat oleh Tun Mahatir tentang 20% penarikan modal kaum TONGHUA dari Kuala Lumpur secara negatif kerana Tun sedar tentang sumbangan kaum TIONG HUA di Malaysia, Tun juga nak generasi muda belajar dari peniaga Tionghua yang berjaya.Tun kadang kala DIRECT sedikit tetapi intention nya adalah yang bagus Keseluruhannya Tun pemimpin yang cermelang , berapakah peminpin adalah seperti Tun yang sanggup bekerja rajin sebagai SALESMEN pergi luar negeri untuk menarik pelabur ke Malaysia.
2)Saya cadangkan bilangan Menteri MCA dan Gerakan ditambahkan kerana dua parti ini mempunyai pakar seperti Fong Cheng Onn,Koh Tsu Kun ,Chua Soi Lek yang berkeupaya untuk menarik pelabur dari Asia Timur bagi membantu negara untuk menandangi masaalah kemelesetan ekonomi dunia.
3) Saya juga bercadang sebahagian daripada mereka yang menganggur khas nya yang muda diserap ke SEKTOR pertahanan. Mereka yang diserap ke Sektor Pertahanan boleh
menggunakan kemahiran mereka dalam kegiatan ekonomi . Itulah satu aspek yang kita mungkin boleh pelajari daripada REPABLIK RAKYAT CHINA , dimana setengah barangan keperluan dan barangan kegunaan untuk pertahanan adalah dikeluaran oleh PEOPLE LIBERATION ARMY.

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