Thursday, March 12, 2009

The Anticipated 2nd Stimulus Package/ 第二刺激经济配套

The much-anticipated 2nd stimulus package or mini budget was finally unveiled by the Deputy Prime Minister who is also the Finance Minister I.

I am surprised that the amount RM60billion over 2 years was much higher than anticipated. This is a good sign that the government is not in state of denial and Malaysia, like any country in the world will not be spared from the economic tsunami originating from America.

It is good that the government has readjusted the GDP growth this year from a predicted 3.5% when presenting the 1st stimulus package to 1 to -1% of GDP growth this year. The 2nd stimulus package is about 9% of GDP growth over 2 years. This will be financed from the domestic financial system. That will not burden the government with foreign debts, which may have an impact to the actual cause of borrowing because of currency fluctuation.

If we take into account that the yearly budget under RM9 is RM40 billion, the additional RM30 billion would mean a RM70 billion budget for 1 year. However, the actual government spending under the 2nd stimulus package is only RM15 billion since the rest is in the form of government guaranteed bank loan.

With the private sector reducing their investment and spending, the government needs to balance the economy through direct spending to prevent a steep downturn.

If the 1st and 2nd stimulus package can reach its target, we will be spared a severe economy contraction as experienced by other countries

It is good that the 1st thrust of the stimulus package is to reduce unemployment and increase employment opportunities. RM700 million is allocated to create 163, 000 job opportunities in public and private sector. The double levy imposed on foreign workers except from plantation, construction and domestic sectors hopefully will reduce the number of foreign workers.

The service sector will feel the pinch since doubling the levy for foreign workers means that the new levy is RM3600 per year per worker.

Reducing the cost in doing business is crucial with turnover down and a margin squeeze. Hence, a lot of people are disappointed that there are no reduction in corporate tax. However, incentives are still given to business which is up to a maximum RM100, 000 for loses incurred this year to be offset against last year’s tax period. For example, if you make a lost of RM200, 000 this year and made a profit of RM300, 000 last year, you are able to claim RM100, 000 loses last year.

Besides that, the double tax reduction on worker’s salary for companies that employ retrenched workers is a welcome move by the private sector. However, the salary should not be more than RM10, 000 a month.

There is also reduction in certain sectors and levy to the human resources fund. The working capital guarantee scheme would help SMI to obtain loans from the financial institutions.

To reduce the burden of the common rakyat of the financial burden, the RM674 million in subsidy to avoid increase in price of bread, rice and wheat and no increase in toll rate will be welcomed by most consumers. House buyers will be given tax relief for interest up to RM10, 000 per year for three years and hopefully this will provide a booster for housing developers.

A lot of industries are disappointed that there is no reduction in electricity tariff and the price for industrial gas remain high.

During an economic downturn, many graduates may opt for post-graduate studies since a total of 500 phd and 10, 000 Masters degree are offered in local universities. Tuition fees and research grants will be given. It is hoped that students will take up these offers rather than be unemployed.

The government becomes more generous to Chinese, Tamil and Mission schools. I am glad to note that the government has allocated RM300million to the Chinese, Tamil and Mission schools. This is in addition to RMM200million announced in the 1st stimulus package. This is important to show that the government does not give goodies only during election and the government must demonstrate its commitment in education regardless of race and religion.

I am glad to note that all government procurement will be held through open tender. The concept of design and build will not be allowed except highly technical development. This will make construction projects more transparent and people will get project without any political connection and patronage.

To ensure that there is no cost overrun, the government should beef up its standard and cost committee so that all costs of any government projects would be subjected to scrutiny.

However, the committee needs to be staffed by people who are technically competent and that they are there as facilitators for private sector development and not to frustrate private sector.

All in all, it was a good 2nd stimulus package. No stimulus package will satisfy everybody. It is heartening to note that the government is not in denial and is aware if steps are not taken, this impending slowdown may be a long one. To achieve its target, implementation should not be delayed and this may require constant monitoring by various agencies.

万众瞩目的第二刺激经济配套(迷你预算案)终于出炉,日前由副首相兼财长拿督斯里纳吉公布。

我感到以外的是,第二项刺激配套总额高达600亿令吉比预期中要高。不过,这是好的现象,显示政府没有拒认现实。须知在这场源于美国的经济海啸,任何一国家包括大马都无法幸免。

在次轮配套,政府下调2009年的经济成长预测,从原计的3.5%调降到1至-1%,该水平预料占国内生产总值9%比例。这笔资金将国内由国内金融机构注入,因此不会增加政府的外债负担。

假设第9大马计划的年度预算是400亿令吉,注入额外的300亿令吉后,每一年的预算高达700亿令吉,而事实上,政府在第2振兴配套的支出只占其中150亿令吉,其余则是政府担保的银行贷款。

由于私人企业减少投资与开支,政府需透过直接开支来平衡国内经济,避免市场急遽衰退。如果这两项振兴经济配套能奏效,我国经济将可避过严重萎缩。

刺激配套的第一项执行目的锁定减少裁员及增加就业机会。政府拨出7亿令吉在政府和私人领域制造16万3千个新职。与此同时,除了种植、建筑业及女佣,其他行业的外劳人头税将增加一倍,希望这有助减少外劳人数。例如,在服务行业,每位外劳的人头税将涨至3千600令吉。

面对营业额剧降及利润紧缩,减低生意成本是必要的。因此,许多人对政府未下调公司税而失望不已。然而,为了增加企业的现金流转,政府提供税务奖掖,所有企业可以将现年的亏损,推算至前一年来抵消,最高的亏损额是10万令吉。例如,一家企业2008年获得利润30万令吉,今年蒙受20万令吉亏损,该公司可用去年的利润抵消今年的20万令吉亏损,因此它在2008年的应税利润只有10万令吉。

除此以外,政府也获准重新聘用或聘请遭裁退员工的雇主,在缴付公司税时获得员工总薪资的双倍扣税。不过,雇主必须确保该员工的月薪不超过一万令吉。

一些领域的人力资源基金也获得调降。政府也实行运用资本担保计划,协助中小型企业向金融机构融资。

为了减轻人民的财政负担,政府拨出6亿7400万令吉津贴日常生活必需品,以遏制面包、米、谷等必需品涨价,以及严阻大道收费涨价。这项措施广受人民欢迎。此外,购屋者也将享有每年最高一万令吉的房贷利息扣税,长达3年,藉此刺激房产。不过,不少工业人士对政府没有下调工业电费及燃气收费失望不已。

相信在经济萧条期间,许多毕业生会选择继续深造。在高等教育方面,政府就通过此经济配套提供500个博士和一万个硕士研究生学位,承担这些学额的学费和研究费基金,让有意求取更高学位者利用此机会深造。

我也高兴政府拨出3亿令吉改善华小、淡小、教会及宗教学校。这是继第一振兴配套拨出两亿令吉后的额外拨款。这也显示政府并非在只在大选期间捎喜讯。我希望政府能不分种族和宗教,继续密切关注国内各源流的教育发展。

我也欢迎政府采取公开招标采购的措施。政府也禁止“先设计后建设”的方式,除非需要高度技术专业的计划则另当别论。这将确保政府工程计划更透明化,人认也都能竞标政府工程,而无需通过政治关系或举荐。

要避免成本超支,政府需要加强期现有的标准和财政委员会,确保所有政府工程或计划的成本和开支可受审查。

然而,相关委员会的成员必须具有足够的技术条件,以协助促进私营企业发展,而非处处阻碍。

总括而言,这是一项不错的刺激经济配套,须知没有一项计划能满足所有人士。然而,值得庆幸的是,政府没有拒认现实,也清楚了解若不采取应对步骤,这波经济风暴将延续多时。要达到预期目标,政府不能推迟执行所有决定,并确保相关机构持续监督进展和效率。

13 comments:

jotan said...

I can see you were extremely caution in making the comments, then why bother ?
Where is the benefits for the street people ? So how can it be good ?

Chee Yong said...

Wow its such an achievement. Aft more than 51 yrs of independence, BN finally doing open tender.Guan Eng took over Penang less than a year had already started open tender. What took BN so long? Whats the benefit of close tender, I wonder. What a load of crap from BN.Plus I dont see the stimulus package money goes directly to the people like in Taiwan and Singapore.

BN is making me sick and upset that I pray everyday it loses the mandate to govern the country in next GE.

Funniman1965 said...

Great News!! But then, talking is one thing, putting food on poor man's table is another.
We all know much of these so called projects, grants or loans be given to some priviledged people. By the time these projects are implemented, it be 2 or 3 years down the road for actual realisation of the benefits. What are we going to eat for the time being?
How many of us (non Bumis)really can get loans from those Government linked banks? How many of us are registered with Ministry of Finance to get those short term projects like link ways and bus stops?

Personally, I think one of the way to get our economy moving is to get tourists. We have a cheap Ringgit now.
We can have better taxis (they are the best people to impress our tourists). We got to get those tourist spots cleaned up. Some money can be distributed to do up the tourist spots. When tourist come, we have better business in hawker centres, shopping, hotels and even airways.

Mike said...

This is a crap budget.

There are so many hidden codes and agenda (if, but kind of things).

Does it help the average working Malaysia?. The answer is a BIG NO. NO.

Does it help the surviving SMI? Again the answer is another BIG NO. NO.

So whom does it actually help, your guess is as good as mine.

When we already have excess of graduates who cannot speak nor write properly & get a decent job, how smart is it ask more of them to pursue PhD or Master & get rebate of 10-20k?

When people already cannot cope with day to day living, how smart it is to ask them to trade in old proton for Rm 5000? ! or buy another home for tax rebate of 10k?

Just look at the market response for the last two days & you can pretty much see how people fell about this budget. Go any web site survey more than 80% of the people surveyed don’t think this budget is helpful or of any significant use at all. Only those blinded or crony will speak otherwise.

Again this government is hopelessly loss in knowing what the people of Malaysia actually need and wanted! And you pretty much can figure the outcome in the next by election or any election at all.

NEIL said...

Dr, It's just window dressing and I can tell you that nothing will happen after the announcement.Where is the money?If this announcement have any impact,then the stocks will not have gone into tail spin.

Pearls said...

Talk! Talk! Talk! Talk....

In reality, how much of this RM60 billion is going to come right down to the people like me?? Frankly, I dont think it would. Nothing will change.. the prices of food, transportation, medical care, housing and clothing are going to remain just as high. So, what benefits are we talking about?!

笑看风云 said...

2 nd. stimulus

i suppose stimulus is suppose to be focus on immediate need.

i say 30b in i year.

if i am the prime minister

1) cut interest rate for proton ecomonic car, expensive car get lower rate rate.

2) free up monopoly on import and export if any

3)nationalise N-s highway first.....by own petronus . efp and the malaysian people , sell the whole company asset, land except the high way.outsource to be manage by company. on term and condition.very transparent, efficient and profitable.

4) freeze "national services" for student.

5)transform proton into assembly plant.

6) cancel windfall tax on palm oil provide incentive to plantation who got better oil extraction, plantation yield.and direct export.

7) privatise on open tender for KTM
(open tenderto sell the ideal land in singaporeand malaysia)
high speed, high pay load, green energy.

8) open tender for all governmnet, GLC purchase, project off couse still maintance bumi and non bumi status.

9) open tender for all who want to apply AP.or fix a rate anyone can apply

10) collect all federal govermnent arear loan. --- transfer asset sell land building ,company.
make it clear no suplus no BONUS NO Increment.

11) complete bakun job, cancel submarine cable.

12) cancel space project , if still going.-- message to people we are 'realistic'
13) revise whole country "abandon" project, housing, or other-- by private sector, bank, goverment on open tender
14) free up all subsize on diesel-- sell market price. --- set up a account and anounce the saving and where to used it.

15)increase " malay reserve " land value

16)cancel holding period for " bumi house" for at least 5 year or forever

17) increase transport system paid load.

18) overhaual insurance rate and cover rate -- eg. insured car, life, property --- seperate.go afer the hospital or doctor charging extra, indirectly cause the premium to increase.

19)strick rule for money lender act
20) increase taxable braket for people , allowance for wife,child
21) stick control of credit card,
22) reconize world class university (academic and politic seperate)--

23)citizen ship for foreign wife, husband at least a PR and work permit automatic. someone" propose" ? deposit $$ in mlaysia you get PR.,it is unfair if it is true.



24) a special collage/ university
for airplane only for
repair and maintaince we can beat singaopre and hong kong.

26)cancel all future pension scheme
fix a date say from 2010.
look at the usa and europ social benifict ,union is kill the country.

27) cut short legal court case time .--- 2 time postphone the lawer must be blacklist can't apper in court for i year and have to pay penalty to customer.i don't know about judge?

28)go after all those did not pay the education loan,make them (in LEGAL LAW)to pay by monthly reduction from salary. and those joker did not come back to malaysia and refuse pay
sue them by all means they are killing the next generation chance of education.

so much more ----

Pearls said...

Ish!!! Forgot to add...

I think the only people stimulated by this Stimulus package delivered by the very stimulating PM in waiting are...

Kawan-Kawan, Kunchu-Kunchus,sanak-saudara mara, bermacam adiks dan abangs, isteri(s), perempuan simpanan(s), gundik(s) dan sebagainya! Yess.. that's about right.

So, the story is this, we the unknown will have to continue to work our butts off, if we still have a job to work on, if not, we will have to find our own means of survivial and YET support and contribute to this RM60billion stimulus package.

YAH WHAT!!?? Where is the country going to find so much money to vormit out!? Didnt our PM in waiting say it is from internal source? Besides EPF and Petronas, what other internal source do we have that is like a cash cow besides us, human who has a MYKAD?

My EPF better be there when I am ready to take it, if not...

Mike said...

Incidentally what happen to our EPF. They normally announce dividend payment way back in February. Now is coming to April, still no news on 2008 dividend payment.

Another thing, if the government is really facing with fiscal constraints, why are we still proceeding with this nonsense National Service program. I personnel don’t see much accomplishment except food poisoning, fighting in camp and even mysterious death case of innocent students reported every now and then.

I said for once please scarp this nonsense national service and save us tax payer billion of hard earn money and innocent life too

stingray said...

Najib is just cooking the second stimulus plan.I bet he haven't had a clue about where the economy is heading.He never strike when the iron is hot.This stimulus plan is too late.The problem have long been rooted and Najib is just window dressing.
I don't believe a word Najib says becos I don't have faith he will take our country to new heights.I have my sixth sense telling me that Najib will take our country into shit.Just look at the way he handle Altantuya case,Razak Baginda unconditional release,Perak issue,corruption in umno,political situation in malaysia,the suppression of the opposition,the treatment of Hindraf and the Indians,the illegal taking of the submarine commission,the maybank issue etc.This is just the tip of the iceberg.As you all can clearly remember what Racist Mahathir have said about chosing Abdullah Badawi instead of Najib to be PM.He is just not fit to be our PM.

Food so delicious! said...

Mike,

Didnt you heard that EPF dividend for 2008 is rumoured to be...jjjj (stands for Jang! jang! jang! jang!).. READY!? 4.5%

FOUR Freaking point FIVE percent!! I am so freaking mad about this if it is true!! EPF should be able to give us better dividend!!

Don't even think of saying about the economy and what have you ah!! Don't even go that path!! EPF got money to loan to some loser like Valuecap but got no money to pay us, the contributors, better dividend!? Who's decision is it to pay what dividend or who gets a loan from EPF??

Mike said...

皇帝明太祖一日问刘基(刘伯温)、天下之事者何?朱(明太祖朱元璋)家江山可长享否?

基对曰:我皇万子万孙,何待问哉!

帝曰:虽然。自古有荣枯,天下未有不朽之物,天下非一人之天下也。

基曰:天机泄漏,臣罪非经。

刘伯温所谓的天机就是“万子万孙”四个字。明朝的末代(或末任)皇帝是第十四任“万历”皇帝的孙子——在北京景山自缢的崇祯皇帝,亦即朱家的江山传到“万历”的孙子“崇祯”而灭亡。

马来友人说:马来人对政治局势的发展非常关心,他们正对“RAHMAN”这个字作各种预测和解读。它的前面五个字母已完全应验了,顺序代表着我国五位首相名字的第一个字母。最后一个字母“N ”代表候任首相“Najib ”(纳吉)的名字。过了三月,这个预言完全成为真实。

最后,他问我:马来文“RAHMAN”这个字所含的玄机或神奇是否可媲美“万子万孙”一词?目前有什么政治征兆出现?华人的预测是什么?

我笑答说:纳吉将是我国历史上面对内外最艰巨挑战的第六位首相。不过,我不是刘伯温。

吾説八道 (林伯芳) said...

致我党尊贵的同志们,

党的区会主席之位应该要马上改为党员直选制
当今,我党要在来届大选牛扭权坤的话那保住基层党员的选票是必行的首要工作。为了保住基层党员的选票,党的区会主席之位应该要马上改为党员直选制。总会长直选制固然好,但它对基层的震撼度是不够彻底。在政党内不民主机制下的一些我党领导为了保住发财正位,不顾三七二十一,出言#出$·出力#出玄*出色和出卖良心来伤害*加害和误导同志们与热爱马华的选民。要铲除以上的恶习,党的区会主席之位改为党员直选制是必行的党内改革運动。

党的区会主席直选制所能带来的改革:
1。每一位党员的一票的比重相对增加。
2。让党走向民主而不是走向专制。
3。提高了每一位党员的基本参政权。
3。拉近了基层党员和区会主席的关系。
4。否定幽灵党员的投票。
5。否定有官位候选人的不法拉票活动。
6。让党员走向自由而不是成为奴隶。
7。否定PLP型的候选人。
8。敢于反对贪官权贵的横行霸道。  
9。敢于反对这个组织不合理的制度。 
10。增加候选人对自己自我提升能力速度。
11。培养基层党员对候选人的爱戴度。
12。为领导层捐躯的同时也不忘为基层党员捐躯。

最后恳请总会长,总团长三思以上出血贞论。同时也恳请我党的爱党同志们不管你同意或不同意请提供宝贵意见。
且听呤鸣,吾党长存。

馬華加埔區巴生市区支会団長
林伯芳
吉年吉月吉日

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