Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau By-Elections

In both the by-elections, BN failed to win both seats. In the case of Bukit Gantang, PAS candidate won with an increased majority of 1845 votes as compared with the 308 General Election. In Bukit Selambau seat, the PKR candidate won the election also with the increased majority of 41 votes.

In both seats, the support of non-Malays for BN has gone down. In Bukit Selambau state seat, the Indian votes may have gone up slightly for the MIC candidate. I do not have the detailed analysis of all the voting trends in the saluran but it is obvious that in Bukit Gantang, where the Chinese voters were concentrated in Simpang and also in Kuala Sepetang, longstanding local issues that were neglected by BN state assemblyman (Gerakan) and MP was a sore point among the Chinese voters.

Two days of walking from house to house in Simpang and Kuala Sepetang, it became obvious that the Chinese voters are disillusioned with promises made by BN ‘s YBs, that remains unfulfilled. In Kg. Baru Kuala Sepetang, the main issue is that they have been squatting on the land without proper land title. Seeing how the houses are constructed, I can understand the technical and the legal difficulty in approving their land title. They were constructed hazardly without the approval of relevant authorities. The only way to regain their support and trust is to grant them the land title without taking into consideration that the building may not fulfill all the building bylaws. Otherwise, come General Election, the voters will still not vote for BN.

BN including MCA needs to relook at its campaign strategy. The young voters seem to avoid BN. Most of the BN election workers including MCA are middle-aged 40 and above with a sprinkling of Youth and Puteri. Most of the election workers in PR are of the younger generation. What is glaring is that I do not see a lot of BN Pemuda working on the ground, other than big groups of UMNO motorcyclists. Often, these group of motorcyclists create noise and traffic obstruction and they have no role to play to convince voters to vote for BN.

In ceramah, most BN leaders talk about development and often, national development, which a lot of voters fail to connect. The opposition ceramah obviously attract more crowd, hammer on BN, especially UMNO for corruption and abuse of power and system of patronage that is practiced at the local level.

Portraying Nizar as pro-Chinese and also as alleged treason to Malay Sultan seems to have very little impact on Malay voters. However, it only serves to drive away the non-Malay voters. At the local level, UMNO leaders are still playing the racial cards while the more educated Malay voters feel that there are more self-serving leaders rather than for their race.

As usual, grants were given to Chinese schools and there was promise of land swapping for squatters on KTM land. It is the lack of trust and confidence by the voters that these last minute gestures don’t seem to work. BN need to seriously look into its campaign strategy. Ceramah speaker should be multiracial rather than UMNO ceramah by Malay speakers, MCA by Chinese leaders with a sprinkling of UMNO leaders. I observe that in all PR ceramah, the speakers come from all races, hence attracting a multiracial crowd. The MCA Wanita needs to work harder to attract younger members who are more committed, more aggressive, more articulate and vocal. The same applied to the Youth in MCA. Somehow, in both the by-elections, I do not see a lot of Youth leaders, both at the branch and division been actively involved at the local level.

Mahathir rejoining UMNO and making a last minute appearance in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau do not have any significant impact on voter’s support on BN.

Nizar obviously won a lot of sympathy after being ousted as Perak MB. He was also backed by PAS’ formidable organization and election machineries. DAP strategy to tell Chinese voter that they have lost a state government which is Chinese dominated to a Malay dominated government has obviously found favours among Chinese voters. PAS Non-Muslim Chinese Supporter Club seems to work tirelessly to convince Chinese that PAS will be a better alternative then UMNO.

After the 308 election, BN has lost 3 Parliamentary by-election-Permatang Pauh, Kuala Terengganu and now Bukit Gantang. This cannot be taken lightly. It is a tell tale sign for BN that it is not business as usual. BN under Najib has to walk the talk. No beautiful slogans and empty promises. Spend more time to interact with the rakyat rather than attending many official functions where only the selected few are invited and hardly any interaction between the leaders and the rakyat. BN has to undergo big change and not small change and small steps. There is a need to review the many weaknesses within the BN machineries. The time has come to overhaul the whole machinery. For MCA, it is not just Chinese schools and Chinese new villages and Chinese temples. The Chinese wants us to do more. Until then, Chinese support for BN seems to be elusive.

国阵连输武吉干当和武吉士南卯两场补选。民联的多数票也明显增加，分别增加了1845（武吉干当）及41（武吉士南卯）张多数票。

两场补选的非马来选票都剧减少。武吉士南卯的印裔选票稍有增加。在武吉干当，华裔选民聚集的新板和十八丁地区因多项长期悬而未决的地方问题进一步发酵，而流失更多选票。

我在新板及十八丁进行了两天的沿户访问，当地选民显然已对国阵议员的口头承诺极度失望。 十八丁新村的居民长期申请地契不果，此问题困扰他们多年。我到新村走过一趟，发现居民盖房时未经有关当局批准，所该的房子有一定风险，我可以理解当局审理地契申请时，面对的技术和法律难题。然而，国阵若要挽回当地居民的支持和信任，务必迅速解决此问题，尽管这些房子不符合建筑条例，当局应考虑网开一面发放地契。否则在来届大选，选民仍会拒投国阵。

我已多次强调，国阵包括马华需要检讨和改变我们的竞选策略。国阵大多数的竞选工作人员都是年届40岁或以上的中年人，青年和女青年则屈指可数，与年轻、有干劲、富活力的民联助选人员形成强烈对比。而让人懊恼的是，巫青团员除了寥寥几人骑着电单车四处窜、制造噪音和交通梗阻以外，我不见有多少人来助选。

在政治演讲中，国阵领袖的发展牌已不受落。民联的讲座更具号召和，尤其当他们谈到巫统的贪污、滥权和朋党文化。描绘尼查亲华人及忤逆苏丹的做法，看来非但无法让马来票全盘回流，反而流失更多非马来票。当地的巫统领袖仍不懈地玩弄种族情绪，此手法让受过高等教育的马来选民更添反感。

像以往的选举一样，政府在补选前为选民带来一些佳讯，包括华小拨款，临时地契、转换土地等。不过，这些最后一分中赶抵的糖果已无法让选民对国阵重燃信心。国阵需要检讨竞选策略。座谈会主讲者应该摆脱种族色彩。民联邀请各族领袖主讲拜票，就成功吸引了各族选民齐聚聆听。

马华妇女组和马青团需要加倍努力招揽更多有冲劲、能言山道的年轻党员。因为我发现在这两场补选中，来自当地区会及支会马青和女青年助选员人数寥寥无数。而重返巫统并赶在补选前为国阵站台的敦马哈迪，也无法激发效应。

霹雳州夺权事件显然为尼查带来不少同情票。他也获得回教党强大的组织和竞选机制支援赴役。行动党控诉国阵夺权使原由华裔主导的州政权再次回到马来人手中的策略也明显对华裔选民奏效。而回教党华裔支持者俱乐部更倾力助选，说服华裔选民投选回教党候选人，这些都是促成国阵落选的因素之一，我们需要正视。

308大选后，国阵已经输了峇东埔、瓜登及双武吉3场补选4个议席，不能再视之闲等。国阵的情势已经很坏。以纳吉为首的国阵必须坐言起行，摒弃华而不实的口号和勿再许空头承诺。与其出席无数活动，国阵的领袖应该用更多时间和心思贴近人民，促进交流。国阵必须要进行大改革，彻底检讨国阵机制的弱点。至于马华，我们的斗争不只是为华小、新村和庙宇。