Swine Fever: A Pandemic Flu?

A pandemic flu remains a constant threat to the health status of the world. Few years ago, the WHO predicted that there will be emergence of one new disease every year. Since then, we have heard about the Ebola virus, and back home, the Nipah virus, the SARS, the avian flu and now the swine fever.

When avian flu came on stage, many nations, including Malaysia have to put in place preparedness plan to combat the avian flu. It was speculated then that it could become a pandemic flu. I always felt that it was a panic reaction of overreacting by the health authorities. In the case of avian flu, the virus can only spread from poultry to human being. Human to human spread have not been well documented. Hence, I felt that a pandemic would be very unlikely until there is human-to-human spread. Events have proven that I am right.

In the present case of the swine fever, a pandemic will be a very likely scenario if nations are not careful. In this case, it is well documented that the spread can occur from human to human. Since the spread is by airborne, then we can imagine it can be rapid with disastrous consequences. Since the virus is a mutated form, in other words a new virus, the human beings have no immunity.

Couple with ease of travelling, one can imagine how rapidly an airborne disease from one nation can become a pandemic affecting many nations. 50 years ago, one would not be unduly worried about an infectious flu since it would take months for the virus to travel from one nation to another. Now, with the convenience of air travel, every exposed individual is a potential carrier and also a killer.

These few days I have been asked why personal hygiene and cleaning our hands would reduce infections. Since the disease is airborne, any person who is coughing, sneezing or even talking, the infected airborne particles will land on surfaces and if we happen to touch it, we may be infected. Hence, personal hygiene and cleaning our hands will be one of the most effective ways of combating this disease. Of course everybody will start wearing masks. To be effective, the mask should have size N95 and above. Then only it will serve to filter out the particles. Hence, not any mask will do.

However, when the panic button is pressed, everybody will be wearing mask. Vaccination against the common flu will be of no help. So don’t waste your money on it.

It is best in an epidemic like this to avoid crowded place, shaking hands and greeting people with a kiss. So, Mexicans are doing the right thing by staying at home.

I am surprised that at our international airport, screening is done manually by taking body temperature of the incoming travelers. This by itself can be potential source of infection. It is best that the thermal scanner should be installed.

Let’s hope that the health authorities will be strict with any incoming travelers with high body temperature from the affected countries. They should be quarantined in designated hospitals.

多年来，流感一直威胁全球人类的健康。数年前，世界卫生组织大胆预测，全球在未来每年将出现一种新病毒或疾病。至此以后，在非洲就发现了伊波拉病疫，在大马也有出现了立百病毒、非典、禽流感，以及最近在墨西哥爆发的猪流感。

吸取了非典的教训，在禽流感爆发初始时，许多国家包括马来西亚就即刻启动防疫措施，严防疫情蔓延，甚至有人预测禽流病毒会演变成袭人的夺命流感。我一直认为，这是有关当局恐慌失措的过度反应。以禽流感为例，禽流感病毒只会通过家禽传染给人类，而且迄今还没出现确认的人类互传的病例。我认为，只要没有人传人病例，流感不至于会爆发成瘟疫，而事实也证明我的想法是对的。

至于最新爆发的猪流感，如果应对有误，它可能会引发全国性的流感疫潮。一旦发生，人类互传的病例就有案可稽。由于病毒可通过空气传播，可以预见病疫一旦爆发将迅速扩散，一发不可收拾。

由于引发猪流感的病菌是新变种病毒，所以人体没有抑抗此病毒的抗体，医药界也未有给人类的预防疫苗，注射普通感冒的疫苗亦无补于事。航空的便利加速病毒通过空气传播，从发源国迅速蔓延至其他国家。50年前，一个病毒可能需要几个月时间向外传染。如今，航空的方便，任何人都有成为带菌者甚至是杀手的风险。

很多人不明白保持个人卫生清洁如何能减少感染风险。鉴于病毒通过空气传染，当我们咳嗽、打喷嚏甚至说话时，病菌会随着飞沫在空气中、地面或物体上面停留，如果我们碰触，就可能会被感染。因此，保持个人卫生和勤洗手时预防猪流感最有效的方法。然而，疫情发展已让人们惊惶，很多人将开始带上口罩，但我要提醒大家必须选择N95或以上的口罩，才能过滤空气微粒。

此外，流行病爆发疫潮期间，尽量避免与人握手、亲吻问候或到人潮拥挤的地方。疫情最严重的墨西哥促人民留待家中，减少出门是正确制止疫情的方法。我很惊讶吉隆坡国际机场的医疗站迄今只以医务人员动手为入境乘客执行体检探温，要知道这也可成为感染的源头。当局应该尽快在入境闸设立热感体温扫描器。

希望卫生当局在入境处能时刻提高警惕，严谨把关，一旦发现患有流感症状的乘客，务必隔离检验严防疫潮。