Wednesday, February 18, 2009

By-Election Festival

Since 308 election, there have been 2 by-elections, one in Permatang Pauh and the other in Kuala Terengganu, both won by Pakatan Rakyat.

Now the nation will face another 2 by-elections – Bukit Gantang in Perak and Bukit Selambau in Kedah, all are set on April 7. There may be another by-election in Bukit Lanjan, Selangor.

There will be another round of intense politicking while the nation faces an economic downturn. The voting date will be after the “Mini-Budget” to be tabled on the 10th March and after UMNO general assembly and party election.

By then, Najib will be PM and a new man will lead UMNO and the nation.

The ‘mini budget’ and UMNO AGM and election will have a bearing on the nation and the voters.

Bukit Gantang Parliamentary Seat

With an ethnic presentation of Malays: 63%, Chinese: 27% and Indian: 9%, it is a ‘mini-Malaysia’ in ethnic composition.

It has been traditionally been a BN seat until its fall in 308 general election. Today, it is not a safe seat to BN or PR.

With the Perak fiasco and change of government, Perakians sentiment and emotion may be running high.

PR will go to town about how voters have been betrayed by the defection of 3 ADUNs and how fresh by-election should be called.

Voters’ angers will be palpable. Often we forget that it was PR Anwar openly encouraging BN MP to leap frog to PR.

In short, BN and PR cannot claim moral high ground, as both are players in this “frog game”.

However, we cannot deny that PR may have a lot of sympathy, although it was its own people that cause its downfall. The 3 ADUNs days are numbered with public opinion dead against them.

DAP ADUN Hee Yit Fong seems to bear the burnt of her constituency anger.

PR is going to spin this issue to gain vote, it needs no rocket scientist to understand. BN needs a more effective communication line to counter this.

BN should ban these 3 former PR ADUNs to come near Bukit Gantang. It will only add more anger and emotion to the Bukit Gantang folks.

Whether the palace issue will affect voters’ sentiment, especially Malays are still too early to gauge.

Off course the Sultanate is often a revered institution, especially among the rural Malays. Hence, we can see Karpal Singh’s move to take the Sultan to court becomes a personal undertakings.

No Malay politician from both the political divide in this country will dare to defy the Sultan and to be labeled as “penderhaka” or traitor.

Bukit Selambau State Seat in Kedah

This is one of the very few state seats with significant Indian voters – 29.5%, Malays – 50.2% and Chinese 19.2%.

After the Hindraf episode, Indian support for MIC dropped dramatically. MIC claim to rebrand (like other BN component party) but whether it gets Indian is doubtful.

The Malay votes will be split. This will also be another tough battle.

Having lost 2 by-elections, BN needs to win this 2 by-election.

The domino theory is well known. It is important to have local candidates who are friendly and well known. Campaign period is not the best time to introduce candidate.

BN election machinery needs to be fine-tuned. Talking about development, peace and prosperity will not do.

BN should point out the shortcoming of PR. Its leader admits that there is a lot of low caliber YBs in PR. They never expect to win during the 308 election.  


chchoo said...

not sure if you are trying to "spin" the story in favor of BN. however, as an observer, i can see the difference between PR and BN's "frog game". anwar is offering the opportunity to "change" and BN is seen as offering "goodies" to the reps. i might be wrong but the public is clearly behind the PR now. i predict that all seats will still be won by PR with simple majority.

the question remains on how MCA should walk out from this unhealthy political clouds and win back the hearts and minds of malaysian chinese. i know your hands are tight but we should be courages enough to admit and accept the many "problems" facing the party and move forward to shift the old mentality.

i remain a silent and dedicated MCA supporter as i still see hope in you.

Darick said...

it's immposible for corrupted regime racist umno to win any 'buy-election'
it's a matter of how regime will lost in bigger majority !
all regime dirty-politics, Rakyat will not buy in !
regime has fail in their attemt to stir up malays support by using religion, race & isu babi BUT d malays won't fall into regime's trap !
now regime is using Sultan to stir up malays support BUT siapa derhaka raja dulu?
regime is d real culprite in 1993 amend & pass d law that sultan can b sue !!!!!!

ken said...

Hi Dr. Chua

I think that is a right time for MCA or may for u to consider quit BN, don't u see what is the focus debated by Mukhriz Mahathir , Khairy Jamaluddin & Khir Toyo? All about race, draconian laws and religion. Don't waste ur time, may be u should consider to quit MCA, there has no room for u.

Pearls said...

I think we all can guess what will the results of the upcoming 2 by-elections be. Ok la..maybe 3 by-elections. Tiap-tiap kali pun kalah, macam mana ni??!!!

The fact of the matter is that although Anwar/PR talked or came up with this leap frog leap idea, everyone is very aware that the person/party that actually did it was BN. Talk is one thing, doing is another!!

Another fact is, what was expressed by chchoo is very correct.. Anwar/PR is offering the opportunity to "change" and BN is seen as offering "goodies" to the rep.

As for BN, what makes you think that Najib will be better off than Badawi? I for one, as a Malaysian, is very ashame to have an upcoming PM that is linked/implicated/rumoured or talked about in some big time POW CHAR murder case!! This is THE joke of the century!

Of course, there is also the fact that Najib has got nothing much to show for his abilities and capabilities except for moronic and idiotic policies. I simply cannot bring myself to respect/admire/pay attention to such a leader and I am sure I am not the only one!

All said and done.. BN is already in very deep shit (6 feet going on to 7 feet) and if things continue this way, BN will be out of business by the next election! We young people will take the risk.

Mike said...

This article is too shallow and carry no depth at all.

The frog game who started in the 1st place (in the 90s)? Please do some homework before publishing.

Any way these sorts of frog jumping are very unhealthy and should be banned immediately. Why nobody except a few are questioning it now. What is MCA stand on this. After the Perak episode I guess OTK or MCA just keep a tight lip on this.

You see most Chinese blame MCA for what we are in today.

Please get realistic on this. In OTK own blog survey, close to 80% of people voted for MCA to leave BN (or 4 out of 5 visited the site).

What does it tell you? ! People especially Chinese already lost hope and faith in MCA.

The sad thing is the current MCA leaders are still pretty much sleep walking and in denial of the fact that antoher bigger Tusnami is coming.

The OTK, Liaw and WKS still going around town proudly proclaimed victory on the re-opened of a closed PJ C School that should not be closed in the 1st place (after closed for almost 10 years). Handing out of NY hampers to KT voters before by-election, Karaoke Session, lacky draw....

You still believe with today information technology and exposure the high educated and informed Chinese can still be bought like 30 years ago?

These by-election will be testing time for both camps. But the message the people is trying to send is still the same..

Hell with the corrupted leaders ...

呉 和豪 said...

YB Dato Sei Chua Soi Lek
There may be another by-election in Bukit Lanjan, Selangor.

乎在于人心。裸睡者,益身乎,害身乎,中西医各有己见。裸者,何其错 ,何其罪一言无法解尽。
兴都教神像, 印尼巴厘岛女众裸体者比比皆是。日本净土宗画家所画佛母马雅夫人画

KIMHO8 said...

God and BRUMNO hath deprived MCA of wisdom. Fortunately, wisdom of rakyat will save this country.

God bless Malaysia.

Low said...

cI like the name of the topic: "By-Election Festival". However, most people may concern more about the current economic crisis which affect their daily living rather than enjoying the "Festival"!.Lets hope the current leader (BN) can swift more attention to economic issues rather than over-do in this "festivasl".

anil said...

1. Of course there are still some weaknesses in PR and the choice of the YBs in the last election (especially in PKR). Furthermore, they have no experience in governing a state. But their idealogy and the spirit of change are giving hope to our fellow Malaysians. In a way, that shows how corrup, arrogant, and hopeless the present BN leadership.

Yes. They still need many capable leaders to join them to reform Malaysia. There are some leaders from BN have already joined them. You have experienced in running a state government and also a ministry, please consider to join them for betterment of our Malaysians.

2. The coup d'etat of Perak government by BN also shows that
BN government is not confident of winning an election. So they are using whatever means (so long as it can avoid election) to gain back the power. In a way, that also tells how "capable" our PM to be when comes to wrestling of power. So far we have never see so controversial and problematic incoming PM in our history.

3. This Perak episode also reflects the weakness and how submissive of MCA. The whole episode was led by UMNO, Najib and MCA did not (and cannot) play a role in it. Whether MCA (being 2nd biggest component party) agree or not, they would proceed with it. MCA can only "support" only during the aftermatch. After regain the power, MCA would just happily enjoy being appointed in the state Exco and fighting to represent the Chinese community. I think neither MCA nor Gerakan should accept any positions in the state government if they respect the people of Perak who have decided during the last election. The honour thing for both MCA and Gerakn to do would be to advise UMNO to dissolve the state assembly to seek fresh mandate. People will respect if MCA and Gerakan are chosen to lead the state government. By then MCA can say they represent Chinese community if Perakians voted them as a legitimate government. I just feel that MCA has no ground to claim they represent Chinese community at the present movement.

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